The traditional four-year Bitcoin price cycle following the Harving event has lost its impact across the market. Analyst Ash Crypto emphasized that the historic Bitcoin cycle includes four different stages: bear market, accumulation and, ultimately, euphoric periods. Recent market trends suggest that while forecasting Bitcoin’s price cycles has declined, liquidity factors have emerged as a stronger determinant of price movements.
Is the four-year cycle dead or is it about liquidity?
The traditional four-year crypto cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving seems to have become irrelevant.
Historically, the cycle includes:
bear market
ancumumulation accumulation stage
👉Bulmarket
👉Euphoric periodThis cycle is…pic.twitter.com/xlasj3cwop
– Ash Crypto (@ashcryptoral) April 30, 2025
Cryptocurrency markets usually move following half the schedule of events, causing a significant market transition. The bear market transitions into the accumulation stage before the bull market appears, followed by an extreme growth stage. The expected post-harving bull market failed to make it a year after the Bitcoin Harving event. Bitcoin outperforms Altcoins as investments flow from a variety of sources.
Bitcoin prices are increasingly following investment trends from institutional stakeholders. Retail investors who previously driven demand for Altcoins have focused primarily on Bitcoin, in addition to increased institutional support for Bitcoin ETFs and increased engagement from institutional investors. Bitcoin has shown superior market performance compared to other altcoins due to changing market dynamics.
Liquidity drives Bitcoin price movement
Bitcoin price movements are primarily determined by liquidity. Global liquidity has skyrocketed to unprecedented levels by adding $5.5 billion throughout the first quarter, which could result in an increase of $12 billion a year. Bitcoin serves as the main asset class where participants in the crypto market place new capital inflows. Regardless of traditional cycling patterns, market conditions experience significant changes due to this incoming liquidity flow.
M2 Money Supply leads Bitcoin price movements for 10-12 weeks, with Bitcoin responding to rising global liquidity through a strong upward shift. Market data supports the notion that liquidity affects the main market rather than being driven by regular cycles.
Related: Global liquidity reaches ATH as BTC analysts point to potential price catalysts
Current market dynamics indicate a shift from previous predictable patterns. Bitcoin’s future price actions could be affected by global liquidity patterns and institutional funding activities rather than repeating a four-year cycle. As increased liquidity increases the price of Bitcoin, external factors prove more important than halving the cycle for market performance.
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