Recently, Bitcoin has experienced a major breakout, fostering optimism among traders and pushing expectations towards reaching psychological thresholds. $100,000. But as May’s month approaches, some analysts call attention and recall an old proverb in the financial market: “Sell in May and leave.”
The expression, which began early on the London Stock Exchange, suggests that they would sell their position in May and re-enter the market in the fall due to a historic trend of declining performance over the summer months. Originally, it was mentioned in the traditional stock market, but this seasonality seems to extend to the cryptocurrency world. Bitcoin is included.
The meaning behind “sell in May and get away”: Stop racing to $100,000 with Bitcoin?
The phrase “sell in May and leave” is based on historical data showing how the US stock market tends to record low returns between May and October compared to the November-April period. The causes vary: Lower trading volume, There are few institutional activitiesand General reduction in volatility.
According to BTSE COO Jeff Mei, “Historically, the coming months will be weak for financial markets, with many investors following the proverbs.” However, Mei also points out that this year could be an exception. Bitcoin has already reached $97,000 Also, some growth-related stocks show signs of a recovery. Nevertheless, recent data US GDP It indicates the possible risk of a recession. Interest rate reduction.
Bitcoin and Seasonality: What Data Says
The cryptocurrency market appears to be affected by these seasonal dynamics. According to Coinglas data, Bitcoin often shows weak or negative performance in May In recent years:
- in 2021BTC lost 35%, marking one of the worst months of the year.
- in 2022Due to the collapse of the Luna ecosystem, the decline was 15%.
- in 2023the month was flat or slightly positive and contained volatile.
There was an exception: May 2019Bitcoin rose 52%, one of the best performances since 2018. However, it often decreases further in negative May in June. Over the past five years, Four of the 5 months in June closed in red for four months..
Although these data do not guarantee future performance, Cryptocurrency markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and seasonalitylike the traditional stock market.
Altcoin and Meme Coin: greater vulnerability
In addition to Bitcoin, altcoin – Especially memecoin – could be subject to corrections in the coming months. After the first quarter, which often features euphoric rally fueled by speculative flows, investors’ attention may shift towards more stable assets and leave room Significant retracement.
According to Vugar Usi Zade, COO of Exchange Bitget, “Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged 1.8% from May to October, with plus only 65% of the time.” This data refers to the stock market, but helps you understand how Seasonality can also affect investors’ feelings Cryptocurrency.
Quarterly Performance: Wideer Photos
Analyzing Bitcoin’s quarterly performance over the past 12 years brings out even more interesting insights.
- Second quarter (April to June) We recorded an average return of 26%, but the median was only 7.5%, indicating strong Volatility driven by exceptional events.
- in Third quarter (July to September)The mean drops to 6%, with a slightly negative median, suggesting a stage of Fatigue after integration or rally.
Zade emphasizes that **4th quarter (October to December)** historically represents the strongest period for Bitcoin, with an average return of 85.4% and a median of 52.3%. This reinforces that idea It may mark the beginning of a phase of temporary weaknessthere is a possibility of a fall recovery.
Market psychology and self-fulfilling prophecies
The Wall Street calendar does not determine the rules of the crypto market, Investor Psychology It plays an important role. If enough traders begin to believe the effectiveness of “selling in May”, this behavior will be It’s a self-fulfilling prophecyamplifies sales and emphasizes volatility.
moreover, Technical signal It starts to get worse, emotions turn back, proverbs gain even more strength, encouraging more sales and integration.
It’s an uncertain scenario, but it’s not that there are no opportunities
In summary, while **$100,000**’s enthusiasm for Bitcoin continues to grow, historical data and seasonality suggest that we maintain a careful approach. The proverb “sell and leave in May” comes from a completely different context, but it appears to resonate in the cryptocurrency world as well.
Increased institutional participation and integration of crypto markets into the global macroeconomic cycle, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are no longer immune to seasonal dynamics. For investors, this means closely monitoring your data, avoiding a sense of happiness, and considering more sophisticated risk management strategies in the coming months.
