Cardano is trading in a tough range this week, but the breakout could soon follow. With the SEC’s large-scale ETF decision set for tomorrow, traders hope this could trigger a bullish move for the ADA.
The probability of approval for the ADA ETF surged to 71% on Tuesday, the highest polymate since April 20th. This is ahead of the May 29th deadline for determining the Cardano ETF proposed by Grayscale.
🇺🇸The deadline for the Grayscale Cardano $ ada etf decision is this week.
The SEC must approve, reject or delay it by Thursday, May 29th.
Do you think you’ll get approval this week? pic.twitter.com/84o9lylksj
– Cardanians (crdn) (@cardanians_io) May 26, 2025
The SEC has a maximum of 240 days to review Grayscale’s Spot Ada ETF filing, with a final deadline of October 22nd. Therefore, delays may be more likely to be in lieu of rejection or approval.
ADA is stable and ETF optimism peaks at 71%
By mid-April, the chances of approval by the end of 2025 were only 37% for Polymet. However, the odds now above 70% indicate that traders are optimistic even after the SEC recently delayed its XRP ETF.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balknas says there is a 75% chance that ETF will be released this year. He also believes that the SEC may soon approve some crypto ETFs this summer.
XRP, Solana (Sol) and Dogecoin (Doge) are also in the ETF spotlight, with multiple spot filings being played. Polymarket shows strong odds of approval before 2025 – 84% for XRP, 83% for SOL and 67% for Doge.
Cardano Ecosystem Trail
A key hurdle facing Cardano is the unperformance of its ecosystem. Currently, the network only supports 48 Defi apps, with a total locked value of $443 million, with Stablecoins only having $31 million. However, new chains like Unichain and Sonic are overtaking Cardano with a wide margin.
Technical signal ADA bullish setup
Cardano’s technology is bullish as its weekly charts flash bullish signals. We continue to trade above our 100-week moving average, which is our key long-term support level. If momentum applies, last year’s high could be $1.207. If it breaks out above that level, then $2 could be next. It is currently trading at $0.7524.
The RSI is neutral at 51, but the MACD and momentum indicators are slightly bearish, indicating short-term debilitating. However, the long-term trend remains bullish with Emma for 30, 50, 100 and 200 days with strong, long-term support.
Tomorrow’s decision could be a major catalyst for the ADA’s next move. Approval from the SEC can open the door to institutional money, send Ada over $0.84 and kick off new rally.
