With the approval of the Securities and Exchange Commission for the Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Toad Fund’s physical creation and redemption of the July 29th, we will change how certified participants interact with these products, allowing direct transfer of digital assets rather than cash.
This structural change is expected to reduce tracking errors and bid spreads, bring the operating model closer to product ETFs, and potentially expand the investor base.
The timing was published on May 7th at Epoch 364032, introducing an increase in the EIP-7702 SMART account and the EIP-7251’s enabled effective balance limit to 2,048 ETH, consistent with the Ethereum Pectra upgrade. These changes are intended to streamline wallet interactions, increase validator capacity, and enable new use cases for both individual users and large-scale staking operations.
US Spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $53.9 billion in July, according to data from SoSovalue. This brings the cumulative inflow to approximately $9.7 billion, bringing the AUM to $19 billion since its launch. The daily inflows ended on August 1st, with net outflows of around $152 million, a daily reversal that remains within the observed range during the early adoption phase of similar products.
By comparison, the Spot Bitcoin ETF continues to draw a larger netflow that shows the year-to-date influx, where Farside Investors’ public dashboards and SoSovalue provide a reference point for modeling the potential trajectory of Ethereum. If Ethereum wins 30-40% of the YTD inflow pace of Bitcoin, the resulting capital allocation could be sufficient to move prices in the $5,000-$6,000 range based on the elasticity of historic prices.
Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF ratio
At the current market level, Bitcoin trading is nearly $121,684, with Ethereum at around $4,280, with the $5,000 Ethereum price increasing the ETH/BTC ratio to about 0.041, while $6,000 raises that to about 0.049. These ratios remain below the peaks reached in previous market cycles, leaving a range of relative performance shifts in the event of capital turnover.
The derivatives market is positioned to accommodate such movements, with open interest on Ethereum futures exceeding $30 billion in May and options activity continuing to rise in the third quarter, providing liquidity for both hedging and directional strategies linked to spot ETF flows.
Pectra’s Smart Account feature allows transactions to run with greater flexibility and integrate features such as transaction batches and metatransactions to improve the user experience for both retail and institutional participants.
The higher valiter balance cap allows for more efficient capital deployment of large operators, which not only integrates potentially voter infrastructure, but also improves the staking economics of entities running large-capacity nodes.
As the upgrade network adapts, these protocol-level enhancements intersect with improvements in the ETF market structure, creating conditions in which capital inflows can be converted through more direct chain activity.
Institutional allocation behavior remains an important factor for the coming months. The combination of lower operational friction in ETF trading and protocol upgrades that support Scaling could attract new categories of investors who need both efficient market access and network-level capacity.
Monitoring the ratio of Ethereum and Bitcoin inflows, ETH/BTC shifts, and on-chain staking trends is essential to assess whether forecast price range conditions will be realized.
The combination of ETF piping changes and protocol development sets the parameters for the next stage of Ethereum’s market performance.
| BTC base price ($) | ETH $5,000 (ratio) | ETH $5,500 (ratio) | ETH $6,000 (ratio) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $121,684 | 0.0411 | 0.0452 | 0.0493 |
| $130,000 | 0.0385 | 0.0423 | 0.0462 |
| $140,000 | 0.0357 | 0.0393 | 0.0429 |
