$175K from Bitcoin, $17,000 from ETH and Dotcom Style Crush: Expert

In an interview with Dutch host Paul Buitink published on September 4th, Swissblock head economist Henrik Zeberg set up a two-stage roadmap: Bitcoin and crypto. The ultimate powerful “melt” driven by liquidity and momentum followed by a dot-com style bust that says it catalyzes the financial position of the dollar and tightening he monitors.

“We have the biggest bubble ever,” Zeberg I saidstocks, crypto and real estate claim to climb further first before the cycle changes. “The music is still playing and you can still get a drink at the bar,” he said. He expanded the Titanic’s ratiophor to explain why he believes sentiment and macro signals have not yet become critically negative.

Bitcoin, Ethereum soars before the crash of dot com style

Zeberg finds the current moment behind the business cycle, but not at the point of a breakdown. He points to the absence of a classic recession trigger causing yields, credit spreads and initial unemployed claims. “Crush doesn’t come out of the thin air,” he said. “We haven’t seen these signals yet.” With global liquidity at margins improving and the Federal Reserve already “pivoting” in tones, he expects a sharp inverse stage reminiscent of Japan’s 1989 finale. At the index level, he pegs the S&P 500 terminal runs from around 6,400 to around 7,500 to 8,200 today.

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Crypto, in his view, amplifies the movement. Zeberg expects Bitcoin to start with “at least” $140,000 as “$140,000” and then to top in the $165,000 to $175,000 range before bust begins. He projects Ethereum of nearly $17,000, assuming that the ETH/BTC ratio can grow to about 0.12 in the Altcoin stage of a slow cycle. He emphasized the road as being more sudden than slow.

The fulcrum of his paper is the US dollar. Zeberg looks closely at A dxy bottom And then the rapid increase from 117 to 120 – ” wrecking ball“He says it will hit risk assets as a spike in global dollar demand. “If you’re looking at some crisis, all of this liability needs to be settled in dollars,” he says, calling the greenback “still the cleanest shirt.” In that scenario, liquidity preferences begin with risk, credit enhancement and leveragement, especially outside the US, where dollar liabilities collide with local currency cash flows.

He argues that monetary easing cannot prevent cyclical turns before the actual economy rolls. Rate reductions may initially be a market for geese who says, “You’re going to see it really run faster,” but “the smarter people in the market” speculate on weaknesses rather than salvation. He believes the Fed will be opening up the possibility of a bigger, shocking move starting at 25 basis points this month.

In any case, he considers a relatively short bust of deflation – “6-9 months” to one formulation – a staggering stage with policy panic and “Fed tools becoming helpless” on the other side. He is caustic before the proliferation of his profession, skewered exactly 2% of what he called “hub arrogance” that micromanages CPI, and ridiculously laughs at the decision to award Ben Bernanke the Nobel Prize for what he called “the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen.”

Zeberg’s commodity framework slots into that sequence. He expects that gold will perform its “highest obligation” during the liquidity crunch. 2008 pattern A sudden drawdown gives a powerful recovery. He cited a 2008 analogue of about 33-35% of gold peak to trough, and 60% of silver before policy responses set the new legs high.

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But secularly, he projects gold at $35,000 per ounce “in the 2030s” as a negative real fee, an expansion of the balance sheet, and a riperis money for the final “currency reset.” In his vision, that reset will lock the new payment system into gold and ledger-based rails. “Digital elements” are “not Bitcoin.”

Strategy: The biggest ponge in the market?

On the risk of single names, Zeberg delivered one of the most incited lines of the interview Strategy (previous micro-strategy)the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. “When it comes to micro-tactics, I think there’s the biggest open ponge game,” he said. “Everyone has to put it in stock, but he can take on more debts and buy more Bitcoin.”

He tied the company’s vulnerabilities to his macro template. DXY is heading towards 120 and suffering from an 85% type drawdown towards the “Nasdaq, the world’s largest bubble.”

He called the structure “the biggest house of cards we’ve seen in a long time,” and warned it was winding up “really, really, really bad for anyone who thinks they can hold onto it.” He was the only characterization. He presented no evidence beyond the logic of the cyclical and balance sheet, and his statements were framed within his broader melting node taste scenario.

Beyond the headline token, Zeberg claimed that “99%” of crypto projects ultimately fail. He warned that “this rampant speculation” is being extended to the age of simple money, while distinguishing between speculative coins and blockchain projects that provide real-world utility.

When it comes to timing catalysts, Zeberg downplayed the idea of ​​a single trigger, instead describing the environment “toxifying” as a high fee, reducing actual revenues, and climbing delinquent pressure banks and businesses. He monitors the yield on the front end. This says “I’ve begun to break some levels” – a spread of credits and a turn of dollars.

He also said that revenue concentrations in large technologies “distort” the market, and that even high-quality small technicians are likely to be dragged low with indiscriminate rewinds. However, the first stage remains high. “It’s a self-plant cycle,” he said of the blending that drove FOMO and the belief that “the Fed has received our return.”

At the time of pressing, BTC traded for $111,528.

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