Ethereum is integrated just below recent highs, slowly tightening price action within defined structures. Short-term traders are beginning to worry about potential fatigue, but the broader trend remains.
Several key on-chain metrics still suggest strong retention behaviors, adding layers of confidence to ongoing trends.
Technical Analysis
By Shayan
Daily Charts
In the daily time frame, ETH has been respecting sharp ascent channels over the past few months. Price Action continues to produce higher and higher lower prices, confirming a strong bullish structure.
Importantly, the 100-day moving average also exceeded the 200-day MA a few months ago, indicating a historically medium-term upward trend. Despite the minor pullback, the assets find support near the midline of the channel.
Meanwhile, the bullish momentum is undoubtedly waning as the price is below the main resistance area at $4,850. This type of tightening range can often lead to explosive movement in either direction.
If the ETH is above the $4,850 ceiling in volume, the rally can be extended towards the channel limit. Conversely, a failure from the current ascending pattern allows ETH to retest the $4,000 zone before finding a fresh buyer.
4-hour chart
The 4H chart gives you a detailed look at what’s going on within that daily range. ETH is bounced back at $4,300 and $4,800 levels and moving within clean integration range. This lateral structure forms just below the key resistance zone. This shows that buyers aren’t actively chasing prices here. Instead, they are waiting for a deeper pullback or confirmed breakout.
If this range breaks into the downside, the next area of interest is the purple demand zone highlighted just below the $4,000 key level. This zone can also join ascending trendlines and attract long-term buyers. But for now, the RSI has been soaking below 50, suggesting that the Bulls have lost a bit of control during the daytime window. Therefore, pullbacks can be a more likely scenario in the short term.
On-Chain Analysis
Replacement Reserve
Cryptoquant’s on-chain data shows a clear trend of reduced ETH exchange reserves. This is a strong bullish signal from a long-term perspective. Since 2022, ETH has been holding its exchange-run ETH has fallen from over 28 million to under 17 million, reaching multi-year lows.
This consistent spill shows that large holders and long-term investors continue to withdraw ETH from central platforms for likely, defi use, or refrigeration.
The relationship between exchange reserves and prices is often the opposite. A decrease in reserves means there is less ETH available to sell in open markets. This could lead to supply side pressure and ultimate price increases.
The recent acceleration of outflows during price hikes is $4.4,4,000. Despite the rising prices, the holders are unable to quickly make a profit. This is a healthy sign of confidence in the long-term potential of ETH.
