In the context of institutional interest and growing global economic dynamics, Bitcoin (BTC) prices could be at the edge of an unprecedented rise.
Jason Hamlin, founder of Nicoya Research’s financial investment company, Digital currency is ready to reach $150,000 by the end of 2025could reach $200,000 in the first quarter of 2026.
According to Hamlin, Bitcoin is in the consolidation phase after the recent rebound, but has yet to touch on the roof of the trending channel.
“This last bull movement is much lower in proportion than the previous bull movement, so we’ll probably see another important upward movement in the short term,” the analyst explains.
Analysis based on market trends and macroeconomic factors The specialist details five reasons why this upward movement can be promotedBitcoin has integrated his position as a mature asset in the global financial panorama.
Half of the impact reduction
Half of the first factor that makes Hamlin stand out. As shown in Cryptopedia, Cryptootic Educational section, it is its mechanism In half, reduce the amount of bitcoin received by miners as a reward for their work. 2024, Rewards went from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC, with annual inflation dropping by 0.83% to 1.67%.
However, this impact is much smaller than half of 2016, reducing inflation from 8.8% to 4.4%. «It’s unlikely that half of four years will be a key factor in future Bitcoin prices. This means that predicting the maximum based on this cycle is far less accurate than in the past,” Hamlin says.
Less associations of this cycle suggest that Other factors such as the macroeconomics take the lead The impulse of digital currency.
Global fluidity as an important engine
Second, Hamlin points to an increasing global liquidity as a key driver. “The previous half of the cycles coincided with a period of high-liquidity globally, which is more correlated with fluctuations in Bitcoin price,” he says.
“Global liquidity” is a Concepts used to determine the amount available in the global economy. It refers to the amount of financial mass (M2), which is a measure of the total number of currencies in an economy. Includes cash, current deposits, savings deposits, money market accounts, retail investment funds, periods under $100,000.
in 90% of price fluctuations linked to global liquidity recorded in Septemberanalysts look forward to uploading in the coming months.
Excess capital tends to flow to rare assets such as Bitcoin with a fixed supply of 21 million currencies, which strengthens its appeal during periods of high liquidity. In fact, the BTC Alcista market is consistent with the rapid expansion of global liquidity.
The rise of stub coins
The third pillar of Hamlin’s analysis is the 95% correlation between the issuance of Stablecoins and the price of Bitcoin. Linked to assets such as dollars (such as USDT and USDC), these cryptocurrencies act as a bridge between MoneyFíat and Bitcoin.
When new stablecoins are generated, they reflect the entrance to capital to the market. From payments to reserves, the expansion of adoption in the global economy amplifies this trend supported by this trend. For example, Binance, the world’s largest exchange, has reported Stablecoins reserves so far this year at $450 million. This is a record of this trend.
According to Defillma data, Stablecoins’ global offer hits a record of $294,000 millionrepresents a 70% increase from last year.
“The high correlation between the offering of stubcoin and the price of Bitcoin is added to the rapid growth and is worth monitoring supply metrics,” explains Hamlin. Stablecoins promote trading in unstable markets and direct capital towards Bitcoin as a main value reserve.
Institutional demand for growth
The fourth factor is growing institutional interest. US Bitcoin Bags) Funds (ETFs) They accumulated 1,317,663 BTC in under two yearsAccording to Hamlin, it absorbs the entire new daily offer. “Etfs buy more Bitcoin on their own than they’re produced or extracted every day,” he says.
Additionally, the 100 public contribution companies with more BTC have a total of 1,032,627 digital currency units led by the strategy, accumulating 639,835 BTC from their initial investments in 2020, as seen in the image below.
13 countries have been added to this. 519,106 BTC is reserved, including the US and El Salvadoraccording to Bitcoin Treasuries.
“If the growth of companies that have Bitcoin continues, they will quickly absorb a large portion of the total offer,” warns Hamlin.
Technical indicators support optimism
Finally, Hamlin is pointing Colin is the Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), Index Combine metrics such as PI cycle top, Puelll multiples, and Rhodl ratio to measure bullish impulses.
This composite indicator will be evaluated Momentum BTC’s fighter through technical analysis On-chain. These tools help you identify whether the market is overheated (near the peak) or undervalued (near the background) based on historical data from the market cycle.
In the previous cycle, This index was consistently over the 97-100 range, but only reached 83 in the current cycle.As you can see in the graph, the current value is 76.
“This suggests that Bitcoin prices are likely to increase by the time they reach their maximum,” he says.
For Hamlin, Bitcoin has matured as an activity, has less volatility (with regard to past cycles), and has strong institutional support. It could be $1,000,000 over 5 years.
Complementary perspective
In relation to price forecasts, Juan Jose Benitez, president of Paraguay’s Digital Asset Mining (CAPAMAD), spoke with encryption and talked about how the Treasury of Bitcoin, particularly Bitcoin, raises the prices of digital currencies.
The Treasury strengthens the fact that Bitcoin can be used as a spare, causing a recognition of risk in the long run. This is because if a public company keeps it in balance, it needs to hold assets, which helps escalate the price of Bitcoin,” he says.
In his opinion, Bitcoin business adoption and Bitcoin cycle have been forever changed.” “
