Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection in a four-year cycle, and within a few days it could begin a ecstatic “blow-off” advance. Or the market has already printed peaks in its 33rd month, cycles analyst Bob Lucas. In a video released on September 24, 2025, Lucas told viewers there was a tendency to “heavy” towards the imminent rise and fall over the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin Blow Off Top Top or Already in
Lucas Frame It is currently a late stage in Bitcoin’s upward phase, and points out that advances from the low bare market are “a fairly consistent uptrend characterized by these outperformance periods that make up a large part of the profits of this cycle.” He argued that the current multi-month range resembles “one big foundation, one big solid block” built in a sustained distribution from long-term holders offset by sustained institutional demand. “We’ve seen a fair amount of whales on sale…and it was kind of pressure,” he said, adding, “The important purchasing support we saw in the facility holds prices within this range.”
The central pillar of his bullish case is the lack of a terminal mania phase that historically characterizes cycle peaks. “More importantly, it’s a blow to the highs here,” Lucas said. “All cycles that praised the four-year cycle for Bitcoin have been around for the last three months… euphoric purchases and significant price viewing, and that led to a peak.” From the low of the previous four-year cycle, the market has been 34 months, around 34 months, and he believes seasonality is preferred, so he believes the conditions for that slow surge are in place. Blow Off Phase It’s imminent and it’s just about to begin in my opinion… We’re the most appropriate time in a four-year cycle for such a move. ”
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Lucas placed the recent August high in 33rd month. This echoes the previous cycle “quite closely” and, in his words, makes the bearish interpretation “trustworthy.” He emphasized that he has not ignored relative low performance and strong stock and gold rally. From a purely structural point of view, the bare market’s low to 33 years of mass migration would be a “very healthy 700% increase” and should itself be a perfect cycle under the decline of the framework of re-turns. “I give it an outside chance that it peaked in the 33rd month… maybe 10% to 20%,” he said. Still, he argued that attempting to avoid risk at this exact point was not wise “on the eve of a possible rise.”
If blow-offs are achieved, Lucas expects to follow an established template of weekly progress that is rapidly compounded over 8-15 weeks. He does not commit to hard targets, but he showed magnitude in previous doubled moves. “What we’ve doubled here in the last few months — let’s call it $105K — we’ll get up to $210,000. By December we’ll reach the $200,000 level, but it sounds very optimistic. There’s a pretty clear path to the possibility,” he said. He emphasized that execution should be guided by emotion and overextension, not by round number targets.
Risk management was a major focus. Loukas flagged the 10-month moving average (“a level of about $100,000). As a guardrail for the later cycle: “Closing the month under $100,000 is a big warning sign at this point.” He also marked the previous “Big Weekly Cycle will decrease at $75,000” as a line that says “Bitcoin should not be nearby,” meaning that the violation is in line with the already ongoing bear market.
What to expect next
As an advantage, he wants to confirm via fresh all-time highs establishing clear invalidation below. “Ideally, what I want to see is going back past the $120,000 level. If you move to the new all-time high, it will certainly be my floor,” he said, and the subsequent reversal “after printing the new high, it will “indicate a change in trend and a change in top.”
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Lucas also looked into the third pass. Early 2026 is a longer cycle than peaking at a shorter than usual bear stage. The scenario probably doesn’t feature classic blow-offs, he said, and could move towards a “controlled ascent.” $140,000 – $160,000 Area Before attempting to integrate and align the final push. Beneath that path, he “plays it weekly and month by week, giving Bitcoin the opportunity to continue expanding to ’26 Q1 and beyond.”
While acknowledging that “everyone” is watching Q4 Seasonality And with the dynamics of the four-year cycle, Lucas warned against a rethinking of the consensus. “Historically…it’s still going to unfold in a similar way,” he said.
For now, his basic case is that the market “is at the point of a high start in the bull market,” with a peak in the window from 35-37 months from the lower previous cycle. If the market fails to provide a sustainable breakout and instead runs through pre-defined levels, analysts say they will treat the cycle as confirmation that it will be top of the cycle at 33 months and pivot accordingly.
“Point,” he concluded. 4-year cycle time frame. “The plan from here isn’t easy, but “Be humble… develop price action…and try to take advantage of what I think will be the final move of the four-year cycle.”
At the time of pressing, BTC was traded for $111,740.
Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com
