Many investors are currently watching Bitcoin through the end-of-cycle lens, suggesting that Q4 could mark the end of the current market cycle. However, two key indicators indicate that the bloom market may actually be in its early stages.
GlassNode data smoothes Bitcoin prices across the long-term horizon, showing that the historically only rising 200-week moving average (200WMA) breached $53,000.
Meanwhile, the realized price, the average price at which all Bitcoin in the circulation moved on Onchain last, rose above 200-WMA at $54,000.
Looking back at previous cycles, you’ll see a consistent pattern. In bull markets, realized prices tend to be above 200 WMA, but in bare markets, opposition arises.
For example, in the bull markets in 2017 and 2021, realized prices rose steadily, widening the gap beyond the 200-WMA, and eventually collapsed underneath, marking the start of the bear market.
During the 2022 recession, realised prices fell below the 200-WMA, but have only recently moved above it. Historically, when realized prices exceed this long-term moving average, Bitcoin has tended to propel higher as bull markets progress.
