According to Alfur Hayes, the traditional Bitcoin (BTC) cycle of repeating bull and bear markets every four years is over. The financial analyst and BitMEX exchange founder’s pattern fails this time due to macroeconomic factors.
For Mr. Hayes, in the current scenario, monetary policy chiefs in the United States and China; Massive liquidity injection into economy in coming monthsthis will benefit Bitcoin and prevent this 4-year cycle from occurring.
The Bitcoin market is associated with halving cycles. A halving cycle is an event where Bitcoin mining rewards are halved, as explained on Criptopedia, the educational section of CriptoNoticias. Whenever this has happened in the past, asset prices have steadily risen before the downturn begins. As you can see in the chart below, it happened in 2013, then 2017, and then 2021, with an average lag of 16 months.
The most recent halving was in April 2024, or more than 500 days ago. Based on history, this means that the market is approaching the top of the cycle and, as a result, approaching a bearish phase, as for example analyst Henrik Seberg believes.
Based on this historic action, Hayes said: Traders are “hoping to predict the end of this bull market.” “They apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past, and without this historical understanding they can’t understand why it’s failing this time,” the expert argues.
Listen to the financial masters of Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money will become cheaper and more abundant. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this likely future.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX.
The analyst said former US President Joe Biden’s monetary policy decisions, such as the Fed’s reverse repurchase program, have “released $2.5 trillion in liquidity into the market,” a move that continues under Donald Trump’s current administration. At the same time, China entered deflation, and the country’s government promised to lower housing prices.
“And without further guidance or changes to the monetary policy outlook in the US and China, I would agree with many crypto traders that the bull market is over. However, recent statements and actions from the Fed and People’s Bank predict otherwise,” Hayes said, defending his thesis that the four-year cycle is over.
In the United States, “President Trump wants to revitalize the economy,” and this is reflected in the first interest rate cut in a year. In parallel, he believes money printing from China will resume to fight deflation.
In Hayes’ calculations, all of this benefits Bitcoin. Because it’s a massive injection of liquidity reaching the market.. and to give space to other types of actions guided by macroeconomic trends.
