The price of gold has increased significantly so far in 2025, creating a frenzy in the precious metals market. The asset hit a milestone last October when it crossed the technical barrier of $4,300 per troy ounce. However, after reaching this historic maximum, a significant correction was triggered.
this pattern Set a pause period on an uptrend or distribution phase. In an environment of global volatility, is its traditional role as a safe-haven asset being called into question?
Precisely the volatile movement of gold in a context of macroeconomic and geopolitical instability has led experts to re-evaluate the position of Bitcoin (BTC).
In this scenario, Daniel Arees, an economist specializing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, suggested in a conversation with CriptoNoticias that this pause in gold prices is having an effect. Sets up an ideal breeding ground for digital currencies to be tested as true havens of value It is an anti-censorship tool that is more than just a financial asset.
Global instability drives gold prices higher
The factors driving gold prices in 2025 are closely related to geopolitical and macroeconomic instability. Continuing conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, combined with political uncertainty created by the official start of Donald Trump’s second term as US president, tariff wars and global macroeconomic instability; Poured investment funds into gold as a safe asset.
Last February, President Trump signed an executive order that included 10% tariffs on global imports (up to 60% on China) and reinstated emergency policies on the southern border. These measures sparked a tariff war with Mexico, Canada, and the European Union, which retaliated with taxes on U.S. agricultural products.
Macroeconomic instability has become even more acute, and the U.S. public debt has increased exponentially to over $35 trillion, as seen in the following graph.
However, Arraez also notes that the precious metal may be at an inflection point, given that gold is “reaching a ceiling.” Mr. Araez said: “What we’re talking about is the historic highs in gold and the moves of technology companies like NVIDIA, Oracle, and OpenAI, to name just three. “It’s been setting the benchmark for where technology is going.”
The expert added that attention is divided between those who fear an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and those who predict changes in AI. US economic dominance position affected by ‘terrible macroeconomic decisions’. Arraez argues that this climate is setting the stage for Bitcoin.
“I think all of this is setting up in an ideal environment and breeding ground for Bitcoin to be tested in a real economic crisis environment, beyond what it was designed for and tested around the world in 2008 and 2009. We believe that Bitcoin, in particular, as a technology rather than a financial asset, is the alternative we need to capture a significant portion of this capital.
Daniel Arees, an economist specializing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Suspension of gold as a “circulation stage”, according to Wyckoff
So far, there has been a significant increase in the price of gold, which is becoming more lateralized. Based on the methodology of investor and analyst Richard D. Wyckoff, This trading range represents a key stage where the next big price move is being prepared..
The pause occurs after a significant rise and thus indicates a distributional phase. Essentially, this is a period during which institutional investors gradually sell their positions, lock in profits, and transfer assets to retail investors who arrive later.
Technically, the distribution phase is identified by decreasing volume on upward attempts and increasing volume on downward attempts within a lateral range. This movement indicates that demand is drying up and supply is being controlled.we expect a breakout of the range to the downside to eventually lead to a correction in metal prices. According to Wyckoff’s methodology, pauses are essential periods for building the energy and posture needed for large movements.
Bitcoin: Still an undervalued anti-establishment value
In the face of the apparent end of the gold bull cycle and its circulation phase, the discussion focuses on Bitcoin as a technology and its potential as a digital asset. Absorbing capital that has historically fled to precious metals. Arraez believes in Bitcoin as an alternative to centralized money.
“The price of gold is high, but the value for me is not so high. I trust Bitcoin more as an alternative to centralized, fiat, fiat currencies. In this sense, when we talk about Bitcoin as a protocol, its price has not yet reached its value. “Bitcoin is a tool of anti-establishment, anti-censorship, capital protection, heritage protection.”
Daniel Arees, an economist specializing in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
economist We predict that the bearish trend could reverse by the end of 2025, leading to a parabolic rise in digital assets.. “The rest of this year could be a year of parabolic highs for Bitcoin, but a pullback for gold,” the experts predict.
This higher price prediction for BTC measured in USD is due to macroeconomic factors rather than institutional value discovery.
Arraez expects Bitcoin to reach a higher price level in dollar terms than it currently does by this time next year, but not necessarily because businesses, individuals, individuals, and governments see more value in Bitcoin; US currency enters crisis stagebecause the United States’ actions on currency issues are “not clear and the debt is progressing very exponentially.”
