Bitcoin’s sluggish price movement was a common feature throughout the first two weeks of November. All eyes are on the flagship cryptocurrency, which has lost support at $100,000 and is hovering around yet another major price level, namely $95,000. However, as Bitcoin price struggles to regain its bullish momentum, recent on-chain data points to events with bullish implications in the short term.
Could BTC price recovery start in December?
In its latest Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, XWIN Research Japan reported that Bitcoin could definitely recover to its previous highs soon. To lend credence to this insight, the analytics firm revealed that stablecoin exchange reserves are continuously witnessing episodes of rapid growth.
Historically, periods of stablecoin accumulation have preceded significant price expansions. As an example, DeFi companies highlighted events in July 2025. As BTC hovered around $100,000 at the time, stablecoin liquidity increased exponentially at the same time. A few weeks later, Bitcoin broke through the resistance it was facing and took its price near $110,000.
A similar trend was observed from mid-August to late September. Bitcoin showed little directional momentum after recording an increase in foreign exchange reserves of over $8 billion (in 30 days). But by late September, the premium cryptocurrency had soared to an all-time high of $126,000.
There was also a large accumulation of stablecoins from the end of September to the beginning of October. This also happened before Bitcoin rose to all-time highs before the crash in mid-October.
Source: CryptoQuant
While a pattern is ostensibly in play, with stablecoin accumulation being a key factor, predicting price reaction to this change is not so easy, XWIN Research explained. This is due to the inconsistent response of Bitcoin in the past. “Responses may occur within a few days or may take several weeks,” the facility said.
Still, XWIN Research noted that macro events such as the upcoming December FOMC meeting could act as a trigger to revitalize dormant liquidity. Stablecoin reserves will reach record levels in 2025. This large amount of liquidity could fuel the next significant price recovery.
BTC trades below its 365-day moving average — more pain on the way?
In a separate post on X, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, shared the market leader’s less optimistic predictions. Cryptocurrency experts reiterated that Bitcoin price is below its annual moving average of $102,000.
Citing historical trends, Moreno reasoned that the Bitcoin market could be at the beginning of a bearish phase as it would be “pretty difficult to recover” from the failure of the 365-day moving average.
As it stands, BTC is likely targeting support levels at $92,000 and $72,000. However, if a large amount of demand flows into the market reflecting an improvement in market conditions, the main cryptocurrency could make a miraculous reversal from its unstable situation.
As of this writing, Bitcoin’s value is around $96,050, with no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
