The consensus is heavily tilted toward another extended bear market after Bitcoin prices hit a record high of $126,000 in October. However, some analysts say this will not happen in a straight line. Rather, there will be a short-term rescue rebound that pushes prices higher before moving into the next phase of the bear market. One of these analysts, TradingShot, shares what he calls a “realistic” price target that Bitcoin price can still achieve before falling into a full bear market.
Bitcoin is on a recovery trend
trading shot analysis This is not contrary to the idea of a bear market, but points to the fact that Bitcoin has not yet entered a new bullish cycle. The analysis focuses on how cryptocurrencies have fallen since reaching all-time highs and entered a bear market. Analysts have noted similarities between the current market structure and the one seen during the market decline from January 20th to April 7th, indicating that both are part of a “channel up” formation.
Another interesting fact about the current trend is the fact that the 1-day MACD bullish cross has also been completed, similar to the January-April trend. This is the formation that led to a brief recovery in March, and the same could be the case this time around.
Analysts say such a rally is known as a countertrend rally, and another rally could be on the way. If this is the case, then Bitcoin price is poised to retest the low trend line and the contact point could be at a significantly higher price level than Bitcoin’s current trend.
achievable goals
If this counter-trend rally in Bitcoin prices actually plays out, TradingShot outlines two main targets the cryptocurrency could reach. The initial price is $95,850, which corresponds to the 0.382 Fibonacci level. This level is the rejection point for the rebound in April 2025 and will be an important phase.
On top of this first goal, a second and final goal of $106,450 has been set. Interestingly, this target is outside the lower high trend line, but is still a viable option. This occurs in a situation where the Bitcoin price touches the 1D MA200. The analyst explains, “Here is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This is also target 2 of the April fractal and is where the second consolidation took place.”
Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com
