Bitcoin (BTC) once again fell below $90,000, setting off alarm bells among investors.
According to analysis firm Glassnode, price momentum has weakened. Market conditions are deteriorating, and on-chain activities present a complex situation. Assets remain “vulnerable to new declines.”
One indicator to consider for company specialists is the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI).
“The momentum weakened significantly as the 14-day RSI retreated to neutral territory amid deteriorating spot market conditions,” the company’s experts said. The graph shows that momentum Bitcoin price via RSI:
The gray line represents the Bitcoin price, the blue line corresponds to the RSI, and the green and red bands indicate statistical levels related to overbought and oversold areas.
The RSI is currently hovering around 47, below the neutral level (50), suggesting that the bullish momentum is weakening. At the same time, the indicator is approaching the lower band, indicating increasing selling pressure.
Bitcoin vulnerability scenarios
In practice, surrender has not been confirmed, but scenarios have been pointed out that would increase vulnerability. Probability wins here Sideways consolidation or further correction before clear bullish continuation.
Similarly, the experts noted, “Spot CVD has moved significantly into negative territory, indicating increasing sell-side aggressiveness, and spot volume continues to compress towards the statistical lower bound, highlighting reduced liquidity and reduced confidence in price action.”
At this point, it is worth clarifying that CVD is a cumulative delta volume metric (cumulative volume deltain English) in cash. As CriptoNoticias explained, this measures whether active orders come primarily from buyers or sellers.
According to a Glassnode report, sell orders are more dominant than buy orders in the spot market.
At the same time, lower trading volumes reflect lower liquidity and confidence, making Bitcoin prices more vulnerable to rapid fluctuations.
The following graph shows Bitcoin’s CVD, which measures the cumulative difference between active purchases and sales in the market.
The gray line represents the price and the blue line represents the indicator. himself Rapidly deteriorated to approximately -227.3 million dollarsapproaching the lower band. This suggests that selling pressure will increase in the short term, reducing buying confidence.
What will happen to the Bitcoin network activity?
As explained above, Glassnode analysts warn that “on-chain activity presents a mixed picture.”
“Although active addresses declined slightly, adjusted transfer volumes per entity remained above the cap, indicating strong capital movements. At the same time, pressure on fees has decreased, indicating lower demand on block space,” they explain.
In other words, active users on the network are decreasing, but users are moving. large amount of capital. However, the decline in fees suggests that this activity is not leading to increased trading demand.
The following graph shows the metrics of daily active addresses within the Bitcoin network. Please note that this is an on-chain metric that measures the level of usage and activity.
The gray line represents the price and the blue line represents the number of active addresses. This decreases by about 2.3% to about 660,800, nearing the lower end of the statistical range (green/red band).
This suggests that network activity has slowed down slightly, but is still within normal levels and shows no signs of stress.
“Bitcoin ETF inflows will offset the situation.”
The analyst added that it was recorded Net inflows into BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recovered significantlyeven though trading volumes are declining.
Meanwhile, the Bitcoin ETF’s weekly net flows changed sharply, switching from outflows ($124.5 million) to inflows ($290.5 million). This suggests a return to demand from institutional investors and the potential for strategic accumulation through traditional channels.
This dynamic is constructive for emotions. Reflects purchases with a longer time horizon, not just short-term tactical moves.
However, weekly trading volume fell from $19.8 billion to $17.6 billion. This is a sign of reduced participation and market caution, typical of the consolidation phase.
At the same time, the ETF’s MVRV (a measure that compares market value and realized value and allows investors to estimate whether they have unrealized gains or losses) fell from 1.65 to 1.59.
This indicates that profits have been moderately compressed. No signs of euphoria or surrender. Furthermore, it reinforces the idea of a “cautious rather than euphoric” institutional position.
For this reason, experts point out that the price drop from $94,000 has “strengthened the risk aversion system due to consolidation.”
“While some indicators point to underlying activity and institutional interest, confidence remains mixed, leaving the market vulnerable to further declines and an extended period of trading in a volatile range until greater demand emerges,” it added.
Although there are concrete signs of interest and organizational participation, Robust broad-based demand to sustain a clear price recovery does not yet exist.
