Bitcoin price was on track to cross $90,000 in the last few days of 2025 after weeks of a bearish market. failed in the end It will maintain this level until the end of the year. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $88,750, meaning it ended 2025 at less than $100,000.
This price movement is putting pressure on sentiment, with indicators on higher time frames indicating growing depletion. The way Bitcoin ended 2025 could have deeper implications, according to a three-month candlestick analysis shared by analyst Greaney on X More than most traders currently understand.
Three months of bearish engulfment points out weaknesses
technical analysis of Bitcoin price action on the three-month candlestick time frame shows that the cryptocurrency has just printed a major bearish engulfing candlestick that completely overtakes the previous quarter’s gains. This type of candlestick is rare on such a long time frame and usually indicates a decisive transfer of control from buyers to sellers.
The chart shared by Greaney shows this engulfing structure formed after Bitcoin failed to sustain above 2025 levels. In October, the highest price exceeded $120,000, this is, Distribution ended in .
Interestingly, $106,700 corresponds to the bottom of the previous three-month candlestick, making it an important level going forward. Since Bitcoin is currently trading below that zone, the first quarter price action will turn from support into a heavy resistance area. It will need to recover this level convincingly if it is to attempt a recovery in early 2026. To avoid further rejection.
Furthermore, the stochastic level around $108,000 is another important level to watch for Bitcoin price movement in Q1 2026. According to Greaney, if Bitcoin price ends below this zone after the first quarter, it would indicate continued downward pressure. Together, these levels create a severe ceiling above our heads, meaning that even the strongest relief rallies may struggle. Transition to a sustainable upward trend As we welcome the new year.
Bitcoin 3 Month Candlestick Price Chart: @greenytrades on X
Stochastic fatigue indicates the possibility of a cycle peak
Another concerning element of Greenie analysis is its focus on probability indicators. According to the analyst, this is the first time in Bitcoin’s history that the probability theory has reached the 80th percentile over a three-month time frame. This is noteworthy because this is the zone commonly associated with fatigue and local or bull cycle tops.
The chart also shows the red moving average moving above the blue while well below the probability band, a configuration that Greaney interprets as confirmation of the local top. This setup likely marks the end of the current bullish cycle and will only be invalidated if Bitcoin closes above $108,000 by the end of March.
Due to the influence of the central government, the liquidity situation in the entire virtual currency market has been tightened until the second half of 2025. Bank of Japan maintains higher interest rates. This has caused Bitcoin to underperform compared to other notable assets. On the other hand, the following precious metals are Gold and silver hit new highs.
Featured image created by Dall.E, chart on Tradingview.com
