Bitcoin is trading above $115,000 as the market is writing for key decisions of tomorrow from the US Federal Reserve. This week is promised to be decisive. This is because the results of the Fed Conference provide a clear macroeconomic picture that shapes the outlook for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
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Investors are widely hoping for interest rate cuts, but uncertainty remains beyond scale and the pace of policy easing. The 25 point cuts are considered measured pivots and show reliability for controlled economic adjustments. In contrast, more aggressive actions can raise concerns about deeper issues in the US economy and inject fresh volatility into the market. Beyond rates, many analysts also pay attention to tips on quantitative mitigation policies. Many analysts believe it can play a pivotal role in driving liquidity flows to risk assets.
For Bitcoin, stakes are high. Despite recent volatility, cryptocurrencies retain important levels supported by structures request Institutional interest is growing. According to top analyst Axel Adler, the Bitcoin risk index is currently at a low level, indicating a relatively mild environment with limited possibilities for sharp pullbacks or liquidation. This background provides cushioning for the Bulls, but the Fed’s decision could quickly change the balance.
Bitcoin’s risk index settles before FED decision
According to Axel Adler, the Bitcoin Risk Index clearly sees the fundamental stability of the market. The higher the higher the indexif the configuration is more dangerous than the past three years, the configuration is more dangerous as the probability of a quick pullback or liquidation increases. Currently, the index is located at just 23%, at a relatively low level suggesting that the market environment is mild and the probability of sharp drop remains minimal.
Adler notes that a similar setup was rolled out between September and December 2023, suppressing the index and allowing Bitcoin to gradually build strength. During that period, volatility was limited and mild conditions set the foundation for continuing bullish trends. This historic parallel reinforces the idea that if external shocks are avoided, the current environment may be beneficial for sustainable growth.
Still, Adler points out that the immediate risk lies in macroeconomic uncertainty. Investors remain cautious as Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are set to announce their latest decisions tomorrow. Adler even said he hopes there will be no surprises from Powell as unexpected movements can quickly disrupt the mild background.
With the market volatility, many analysts believe Bitcoin could surge in the coming weeks. With low risk indicators, tighter exchange supply and resilient institutional demand, the conditions appear to be even more inversely supported when clarity from the Fed appears.
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Price Action Details: Hold Important Demand
Bitcoin is trading at $115,739 after a steady recovery from its low in early September, showing resilience as it approaches its critical range. The chart highlights that BTC holds above the 50-day (blue) and 200-day (red) moving averages, and pressing 100-day SMA (green) for $114,417 near the current level. The area has proven to be a vital battlefield for bulls and bears as well.
Despite Interday’s volatility, BTC is able to surpass the key support zone of $114,500-115,000, indicating demand from buyers with every price drop. The next important resistance is close to $123,217, a previous peak, and an important psychological barrier the Bulls must recover to confirm breakouts of over $125,000.
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The momentum is cautious, but constructive. The highs formed since early September show that buyers are gradually absorbing supply despite the market facing macroeconomic uncertainty ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision tomorrow. Dubu’s outcome could even be fueled upside down, but the Takis’ surprise risks pulling BTC back to $112,000.
Dall-E special images, TradingView chart
