In markets that denies historical patterns, Bitcoin (BTC) travels a more relaxed cycle than the previous year.
Investors are used to vertical increases and noticeable falls, and are now facing a more gradual rise, changing their accumulation and distribution strategies.
An analysis shared by Cryptoquant, an on-chain data provider created by experts identified as “Crypto Dan,” details the details. The current behavior of Bitcoin, known as Phase 3, is destroyed in a historical pattern.
In previous cycles (phases 1 and 2), long-term investors with BTC held for more than a year controlled market capitalization before the peak.
The following graphics show it with a dark-colored band at the bottom representing the “old” coin in the hands of these investors. As prices rose (Phase 2), they sold, handed the BTC to new buyers, reflected in the brightly colored band at the top of the graph.
This change marked the distribution to weak hands that preceded the serious falls indicated by the red circles and arrows on the graph.
In Phase 3, the panorama changes. The upward trend slope is flattened, indicating a slow rise before last year’s sudden peakaccording to the graph. “Climbing isn’t that pronounced,” Crypto Dan said, forcing investors to readjust their expectations.
Change the engine
This dynamic is fueled by the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs in cash in the US since January 2024. These funds accumulate 1,291,824 BTCAs reported by Cryptoics, ISHARES BITcoin Trust (IBIT) led BlackRock to manage at 746,582 BTC, surpassing the main exchange.
Additionally, facility adoption will increase. 1.2 million BTC, equivalent to 5.7% of the total supply, is in the hands of businesses (989,926 BTC for public companies and 296,945 BTC for private companies). Covering from Latin America to Asia, this Bitcoin Fever will bolster demand.
Meanwhile, capital reversals into cryptocurrencies such as Ethher (Eth) slow the impulse of Bitcoin. “When money moves to other cryptocurrencies, the markets stagnate,” explains Crypto Dan. This move can predict “Alt Seasons” where typical cryptocurrencies exceed Bitcoin at the end of the bullish cycle.
Modification as an opportunity
Despite the slow pace, the possibility of Crypto Dan Ven. “Any fall will be a good opportunity to accumulate more BTC,” he says, highlighting the market’s resilience.
Factors such as the possibility of a reduction in the US Federal Reserve in September and the likelihood of approval of Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs in October reinforce optimism in autumn and winter (the Northern Hemisphere).
The Bitcoin market is more relaxed, but still remains vibrant. The dynamics of institutional adoption, ETF, and capital show that the rise continues, but demand patience. For investors, revision is a window to accumulatealthough elongated, it turns to a cycle that opens up new opportunities.
