Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) once again filled investors with hope.
May 2nd, BTC price reached over USD 97,000 – As reported by Cryptootics – Levels not seen for more than 2 months.
Anyway, the digital currency created by Nakamoto Atoshi remains far from the historical aphorism near the US$110,000 that arrived on January 20th, the assumption day of US President Donald Trump.
The following graph provided by TrainingView observes how Bitcoin prices have moved since January 1, 2025.
Among the factors that supported this movement, Progress in commercial negotiations between the US and China. Signs of bilateral dialogue between the two governments reduced tensions caused by the “customs war” and provided a positive signal to the global market.
Another related element is the actions of the great BTC holders known as the “whale.” These major actors of the market return to profit situations, which strengthens bullish panorama and general optimism in the market.
Additionally, prices exceed the 111-day mobile average (from 93,000 to 97,000 USD). Integration stage with the potential for upward breaks. However, overcoming US$98,000 has emerged as an important condition that allows for a sustained rise to new maximums.
I’ll need to add it to this last week Bitcoin to cash ETFs had positive net capital flows at over USD 1.8 billion. As these funds are supported by underlying assets, such movements in the market are collaborating with the rising prices of Bitcoin.
In the institutional domain, Bitcoin accumulation continues by companies As a strategy (previous micro-strategy). On May 2, Cryptonotics reported that its CEO Michael Saylor announced a new BTC purchase phase, expecting a strong rebound in prices. This position strengthens institutional trust in BTC, particularly in the environment of global financial expansion.
Cryptooticias is In April, around 12 companies around the world purchased BTC. Demand for this financial asset has increased.
Favorable macroeconomic environment
Recent BTC performance is closely related to the macroeconomic context. So far, since 2025, the increase in global liquidity has supported assets that are considered “risk” including BTC.
Furthermore, analysts say that if negotiations between the US and China end in a commercial agreement, Bitcoin can easily climb to 150,000 US dollarsambitious forecasts based on their position as compensation for institutional investment growth and inflation.
In line with this vision, Hashdex declared that BTC represents a “modern alternative” to gold.
Expectations for this week: Look at the Fed
Beyond geopolitical noise, tariff wars, and trade negotiations between powers, The key event that has attracted market attention this week is the next decision from the US Federal Reserve on May 7th. Regarding reference interest rates.
Although there are no major surprises expected at this meeting,The consensus expects the Fed to maintain monetary policy without change– , investors pay attention to any signal that predicts the likelihood of a short or medium-term turn.
For Bitcoin, the nuance of the statement’s statement can make the difference between a pause and a new bullish wave.
Remember that BTC was devised as an alternative to the traditional financial system, but does not work in isolated bubbles. The fact that it is now one of the 10 most valuable financial assets in the world, increasingly links its actions to the global macroeconomic environment, particularly the monetary policy decisions taken by central banks.
The US Federal Reserve is playing a leading role as it remains the global reserve currency, not just the size of the economy it regulates, and its interest rates serve as a reference to the global capital stream.
If the Fed maintains high prices, the cost of money increases. This hinders debt and reduces the liquidity available in the market. In that environment, assets are considered “risk” – technical actions, cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, and more tend to lose their appeal to more conservative measures like the US Treasury Department.
on the contrary, The panorama changes fundamentally when the Fed gives indication that it can lower rates or do it in the short term. Credit drops and flows into assets with potentially appreciation, increasing appetite due to increased non-traditional investments. In that context, Bitcoin usually benefits as an alternative value reserve and as an asset with potential growth.
immediately, What is expected is that the Fed does not change its reference rate at 4.25% to 4.50% of its current range.
The Fed’s position has been clear in recent months: maintain the attitude of “Wait, take a look.” The impact of recent changes on US commercial policy has been assessed.
The new tariffs promoted since April by President Donald Trump have introduced factors of uncertainty that could change the balance between inflation and employment, two pillars of the Fed’s dual mission. The latest data shows that inflation is maintained and the labor market is solid, but the effects of tariffs can be felt later, especially in the form of rising prices and cooling of economic activity.
If that happens, the Fed will face a complicated dilemma. Do you prioritize price stability or maintain employment? Before a stagflation scenario (combining high inflation and economic stagnation), any movement can exacerbate one of the problems. So for now, central banks prefer to go out.
Although no immediate fee reductions are expected in this context, Press conferences after the meeting will be important. Fed President Jerome Powell has been able to provide clues on monetary policy direction for the coming months.
References to the risks or negative impacts on consumption related to tariffs could be interpreted as an opening to a more flexible position. Similarly, if Powell highlights the need for robustness and prudence in current data, the market can read as a sign of current level of continuity for at least a few weeks.
For Bitcoin, this balance is particularly delicate. A more relaxed Fed could release a new wave of capital towards alternative assets. But, for example, a more severe attitude can instantly halt the enthusiasm of the cryptocurrency market, if it suggests an extension of a faster cycle.
If the Fed maintains its fees, but hints cut the nearby horizon, Bitcoin could respond to a new upward impulse. This possibility, combined with other factors already mentioned, allows reinvigoration of institutional purchases, capital entry into ETFs, and weakening of the dollar due to financial expansion – to prepare the land and look for new maximums with BTC above USD 98,000.
on the contrary, If your message is more conservative than expectedand the Fed expresses concern about the inflationary effect of tariffs, The market could ease that enthusiasm. In that case, BTC can enter a longer integration phase while waiting for more critical data.
