The recent escalation of Bitcoin (BTC) prices cited almost $97,000 at the time of this publication has unleashed enthusiasm in the market.
As you can see in the image below, digital currency is at a price level that has not been seen for more than two months.
However, the GlassNode Analysis Firm report shows that This rise faces its first significant resistance, and the correction could be on the horizon If the price exceeds the critical threshold and cannot be consolidated.
analysis Details of current market, technical and on-chain indicators for the market marking coursesand risks investors should consider at this point extremely.
The impulse that the barrier finds
Bitcoin prices show a noticeable recovery, Breaking the bearish trend that has been dominant in recent months. The recent crisis has resulted from tariff measures taken by the United States.
Digital Currency Currently moving from $93,000 to $97,000 in the arearanges consistent with the minimum integration phase observed between November 2024 and February 2025.
This level indicates a turning point. Prices have established the largest pattern of higher prices, suggesting structural changes in the market.
Below is a graph showing the prices from October 2024 to April 2025 and showing this dynamic. There you can see how the price fluctuates over that period and the lowest rank is around $93,000And now, around April 2025, he is about to integrate beyond that important level.
Nevertheless, The 93,000-$97,000 area represents resistance that prices must be maintained beyond To avoid retreat.
The signal mixture provides a clear vision
To understand market behavior, GlassNode combines technical indicators and chain data. This confluence of signals provides a clearer vision of the current impulse.
Two metrics stand out in the analysis. Simple mobile average (DMA 111) over 111 days (DMA 111), also known as 111SMA. It’s at $91,300 at the average Bitcoin price over the last 111 daysserves as a technical indicator of trends.
Meanwhile, the cost of Pink Short-Term Holder (STH-CB) is $93,200; Reflects the average price of recent investorsas seen in the following graph.
The price (black) exceeds both levels, which reflects the strength. However, GlassNode emphasizes that integration in this area is extremely important. If these thresholds are not exceeded, the price could be returned to weakened territory.leaving many investors with unrealized losses.
Technical indicators: signs of relative strength
DMA 111 is a technical indicator widely used by Bitcoin analysts, and GlassNode uses it to assess market impulses.
Your recent conquest It shows that the price gained traction and violated the bass inertia that characterised the previous months.
The graph below visualizes the historical relationships of Bitcoin prices (black lines), simple mobile averages over 111 days (blue lines), and short-term holders (pink lines).
As highlighted, for 56 out of the last 90 days, prices have fallen below these two levels. But recently he has surpassed them, which can be interpreted as a change in favorable trends.
In that part, the cost of short-term holders, which have historically defined bullish and bassist regimes, reinforces this observation. This level of $93,200 serves as a psychological threshold: Investors who purchased at a meticulous price are now looking at profits.
Recent impacts of Bitcoin Falls
Investors who have been maintaining Bitcoin for over a month have regained profitability due to a recent price increase that reached $97,000 yesterday, according to GlassNode.
This economic relief Reduces stress in this group and points to early positive impulses. However, companies warn that the sustainability of this trend will depend on price capacity beyond the mentioned technology levels.
Bitcoin economy reboot
According to GlassNode, beneath the surface, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a series of “resets” that are usually accompanied by corrections.
These adjustments They dissipate speculative excess and prepare the ground for new stages. One important indicator in this context is the MVRV ratio, which measures the unrealized profit or loss of investors.
This index provides a window into the financial pressures faced by market participants.
During the recent bearish trends, MVRV was backed up to its long-term average of 1.74.as seen in the graph.
GlassNode points out that this action recalls the consolidation observed in 2024, particularly during the collapse of the carry trade in yen on August 5, 2024. Carry Trade points to a strategy used in the market for sales of forex where investors sell certain currencies at relatively low interest rates and buy different ones at high interest rates, as explained by Cryptoics.
Movement MVRVs that last above this average are constructive signalsshows a reinforced upward feeling.
Supply Acquisition: Significant Rebounds
There is another metric advertising by GlassNode Percentage of BTC circulation supply in a highly profitable position.
“This metric simply takes into account the state of the currency in terms of either “loss” or “profit” binary, depending on the original underlying price. This is different from the MVRV ratio.
at the moment, 88% of the currency is profit, a high level reflecting the strength of recent rebounds. The only investors with losses are those purchased between December 2024 and February 2025 with prices ranging from $95,000 to $100,000.
It rebounds to gain supply along with the behavior of the MVRV. It suggests that investors’ expectations are highlighted after revision.
Market Balance: Seller’s Risk Ratio
The seller’s risk ratio analyzed by GlassNode provides a different perspective on market conditions. This metric Assessing whether investors will spend coins with big profits or losses Relating to the base price.
High values indicate imbalance and usually precede volatile fluctuations; The low value suggests that the market has reached some balance.
at the moment, The ratio is below the minimum rangeindicating that most coins traveled within the chain are negotiated near the acquisition price.
GlassNode interprets this condition as a typical condition for the integration range. Investors show little temperament to take significant profits or losses. For the market to leave this phase, it will need new catalysts that stimulate capital flows and expand the price range..
Bitcoin long-term holder strategy
The market shows signs of stabilization, Long term holders (LTH) maintain a conservative positionaccording to GlassNode.
Expenses in this group are low and the balance of hands continues to grow. Over 254,000 BTC has exceeded the 155-day threshold from the recent lowest lowest, many of which have accumulated at prices above $95,000, as shown below.
“This suggests that some confidence has returned and that accumulation pressures will go beyond investor trends and reduce risk.”
However, GlassNode predicts that If the price reaches $99,900, lth could increase sales pressurethe average non-performance margin reaches 350%. This historic threshold indicates the beginning of profit in previous cycles.
Additionally, areas of 95,000 to 98,000 are concentrated in losses. As prices approach this range, some investors can choose to sell at equilibrium prices, adding resistance.
Bitcoin Opportunities and Risk Horizons
If Bitcoin exceeds resistance in the $95,000-98,000 range, You can enter the area with a minimum opposite up to $100,000according to GlassNode. Beyond this level, the amount of currencies with a significant cost base could be reduced, and could encourage movement towards new historic maximums. However, this scenario requires substantial demand to absorb expected sales pressure.
For now, the market remains sensitive. Structural reset dissipated much of the speculative excess, but the low activity of taking profits and losses combined with LTH inactivity creates a volatility-prone environment.
GlassNode recommends investors closely monitor key technology levels, particularly DMA 111 and short-term holder costs. If you do not consolidate beyond these thresholds, you may be able to revert the price to the consolidation range.Meanwhile, a sustained break opens the door to a new upward chapter.
In conclusion, according to GlassNode’s analysis, Bitcoin navigates a moment of careful optimism. Recent impulses have surpassed important obstacles, but current resistance represents a serious challenge. The next price movement determines whether the market is ready for a new growth cycle or, conversely, faces revisions that test investor patience.
