Bitcoin continues to struggle below the $90,000 level as volatility remains high and market confidence wanes. Short-term price movements have failed to establish a clear directional bias, creating widespread uncertainty among traders and investors. Although prices remain at historically high levels, internal market conditions suggest that underlying stress is building up behind the scenes, particularly within the mining sector.
recent analysis Axel Adler uses the Miner Financial Health Index, a composite metric that assesses mining profitability relative to price, to highlight the increasing pressure on Bitcoin miners. Measurements above 80% historically indicate excessive profitability and late-cycle conditions, while levels below 20% indicate financial strain and increased risk for miners.
The index is currently hovering around 22%, approaching the caution zone once again. This leaves miner profitability nearing one of its lowest levels since 2022, even though Bitcoin is trading well above its summer 2022 price range. A similar situation typically occurs immediately after a post-correction phase or halving event, where revenue compression and high network difficulty collide.
This disconnect between rising price levels and deteriorating miner fundamentals raises important questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s current structure as the market searches for its next equilibrium.
Miner Economics Suggests Growing Stress Under Bitcoin Price
Adler’s analysis further explores the supply and demand balance in Bitcoin’s mining economy and provides deeper insight into why miner profitability continues to deteriorate. The index tracks the ratio of transaction fee revenue to new coin issuance, effectively measuring how much users are willing to pay for block space compared to the supply expansion rate. Historically, readings above 70% indicate strong demand and a risk-on environment, while levels below 30% reflect structural weakness.
Currently, the balance between supply and demand is near 38% on a 30-day average. While not yet in full stress territory, this indicator has steadily declined from regional highs of over 60%, placing it firmly in the neutral-to-bearish zone.
This trend suggests that intrinsic demand for block space remains subdued and users are showing little urgency to compete with each other for higher fees. Adler notes that for the situation to measurably improve, the index would need to return to levels above 50%, which would likely require either a spike in trading activity or a meaningful on-chain catalyst.
This weakness is reflected in miners’ absolute returns. Bitcoin miner revenue, measured in US dollars and smoothed over a seven-day period, has fallen to around $40 million after a recent peak. This level is in line with the 2025 average, but is well below the spike in revenue seen during periods of increased network activity.
While hardship remains high, declining revenues amplify pressure on less efficient miners, reinforcing the stress indicated by both profitability and demand metrics.
Bitcoin price struggles to regain key trend levels
Bitcoin’s price action on the daily chart reflects the market’s struggle to regain structural strength after a sharp correction. BTC is currently trading around $88,000 after rebounding from recent lows, but the overall trend remains fragile. The decline from the $120,000-$125,000 area marked a clear break in momentum as the price moved below the short-term moving average, causing an acceleration of downward pressure.
Notably, Bitcoin lost its daily 50-day moving average and 100-day moving average during the decline, confirming the transition to a bearish short-term structure. The 200-day moving average continues to trend up and remains where it is, but the price is now consolidating just below it, making this level a key resistance zone. Unless BTC is able to regain this long-term trendline and sustain above, those looking to move higher are likely to face selling pressure.
The sharp increase in selling volume during the breakdown contrasts with the relatively calm buying volume during the rebound, suggesting that the recent rally has been correctional rather than impulsive. Structurally, Bitcoin has formed a low-to-high pattern, and if the support around $85,000-$86,000 fails, downside risk remains elevated.
For the bulls to regain control, BTC needs to regain its 200-day moving average and establish a higher high. Until then, the chart favors stability and further volatility rather than a sustained recovery.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
