According to the latest GlassNode report, the Bitcoin (BTC) market maintains vulnerability signals in all respects. Consultants argue that changing bullish trends is becoming more difficult because there is bear pressure that does not dissipate on market metrics with cash.
According to the latest weekly reports on Cryptovizar and Ukuriaoc experts, the current positioning of short-term holders is a key point as it is on a cost-based basis. Historically, it is a critical level for buyers and vendors.
Similarly, the cash market reflects progressive weakness. For example, the relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures market impulses, slid into oversales territory last week, down 10%, positioning at 33.6. On top of that, The volume of negotiations fell by 8.9% over the same period And the operator declined to convince him.
GlassNode analysts say the accumulated volume delta (CVD) showed a slight decrease in sales pressure, suggesting partial stabilization, but demand remains limited.
Meanwhile, the futures market was behaving cautiously. Open interest (OI) contracts have resulted in a decline in funding rates and a slight improvement in perpetual CVD over the past week. These moves confirm reduced leverage and lower appetite to risk; Traders are less willing to hold a long-term position.
For that part, the option also reduced OI and narrowed the volatile differentiation. The delta bias of 25 reached an extreme level, rising 20.8%, reflecting the search for downward protection.
According to the analytics company, this confirms that most participants maintain their defensive strategies against recent volatility.
Within the facility, the US-negotiated cash ETF Bitcoin They registered an online ticket for $392 million ordersthe trade volume of these financial instruments fell to $17.5 billion, and the ETF MVRV index was generated.
GlassNode describes this behavior as being cautious.
“This suggests integration, and participants are adopting a more cautious attitude while waiting for a clearer market signal.”
GlassNode, an on-chain analysis company.
On-chain data also reflects weaknesses
Active addresses and prices remain moderate, but large entity movements have led to a 3.5% increase in transfers last week. This contrast reflects lower retail participation in greater activity by institutional stakeholders.
This adds capital flow metrics. This indicates a reduced conviction, indicating an increase in the supply relationship between capitalization and short-term and long-term holders that took place in slowing. All of this reveals more speculation with little structural support, according to GlassNode.
GlassNode concludes that rebounds can occur in the short term, The general sense of the market remains vulnerable and biased towards integrationUnless there is a stronger demand.
Market movements
The GlassNode report matches the warnings of other analysts. A crypto expert known as Darkfos said the gain supply has dropped to 90%. In past cycles, when this level was lost, the market entered the corrective phase. He emphasized that the bear market floor has registered at least 50% of the currency, with the percentage being supported by more than 90%.
Additionally, analytics firm Cryptanchain observed that the 30-day mobile average of BTC purchase and sales ratio fell to 0.98, lowering to the lowest level since 2018, strengthening interpretations that widen sales pressure.
This panorama develops in a context of high sensitivity to external factors. The evolution of monetary policy and regulation regarding cryptocurrency-related financial products may condition investors’ responses. For experts, market participants’ response to price drops determines whether Bitcoin will take up bullish courses or enter a longer stage of revision.
Currently, there is an opposing vision that shows why we want to maintain positive expectations. Analysts identified as Oriental Traders argue that Bitcoin’s relative strength against the most liquidity environment, interest rate reductions, and other assets constitute a good reason for the positive forecasts in the coming months. In his opinion, If these factors are combined, the market can maintain a stronger recovery process.
In line with the same line, analyst Willie Wu said Bitcoin is in the stabilization stage after weeks of seller advantage. He emphasized that after a long stage at the exit, the network recorded its first day with a positive capital ticket. In the case of WOO, this signal can be interpreted as a turning point indicating that the structure of Bitcoin begins to form the background, Cryptootics reports.
Crypto Dan analysts have also announced a stage with elements of bullish continuity. As explained, Bitcoin travels through phase 3. Phase 3 features exposure to slower rises and steeper peaks than previous cycles. I’ll consider that The current retreat can be seen as an opportunity for accumulationespecially if external factors are designated as possible rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve in September, or as approvals for new ETFs for Solana and Litecoin. For Crypto Dan, these factors reinforce positive year-end expectations.
In support of this vision, the company Cryptanchain reported a decline in Bitcoin entries into the exchange. The 30-day mobile average of these flows reached its lowest level since May 2023. This indicator shows less waste by investors, and usually reduces distribution offers in the market. To maintain this trend, If demand remains constant, rebound will be possible in the medium term.
It is clear that the Bitcoin market is in a period of definition and will ultimately become investors who decide the path digital currencies must follow. For now, optimism and disappointment are rolling out in a market that has just entered a frightening September.
