Bitcoin (BTC) is trading uncomfortably near the $90,000 mark as macro caution, reduced liquidity, and changing market structure continue to weigh on price trends.
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What was once a retail-driven ecosystem is now increasingly shaped by institutional flows, and while US spot Bitcoin ETFs are attracting large amounts of assets, on-chain activity is trending in the opposite direction. As a result, the market moves, but its participation pattern is very different from that seen in previous cycles.
BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Bitcoin ETF flows increase as retail activity slows
Since the launch of the US Spot Bitcoin ETF in early 2024, the network has seen a steady decline in active on-chain addresses. Analysts believe this is partly due to “convenience trades,” where individual investors choose exposure through traditional brokerage accounts rather than managing their own Bitcoin wallets.
BlackRock’s IBIT and similar products are currently gaining a growing share of BTC demand, even though blockchain itself has shown declining grassroots participation.
Industry experts argue that this change will fundamentally change the way value circulates in the Bitcoin economy. ETF issuers now get a higher share of the revenue, rather than miners or network users.
SwanDesk CEO Jacob King describes this as a structural shift towards off-chain monetization, with Bitcoin acting more as a financial instrument than a peer-to-peer asset.
BTC price pressure increases before and after macro events
Bitcoin’s recent price movements reflect both macro uncertainty and intraday volatility patterns. BTC has repeatedly fallen below $90,000 despite developments supporting historically bullish sentiment, such as the recent purchase of over 10,600 BTC by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
Traders remain cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with expectations rising for a quarter-point rate cut. But the hesitation is clear. The rally towards $92,000 continues to meet resistance, and liquidity remains thin across spot and derivatives markets.
As a result, analysts have warned that Bitcoin needs to hold above a key support level near $88,000 to avoid a deeper decline.
Institutional investor trading dynamics shape market movements
A growing number of analysts are suggesting that the predictable decline around the U.S. market open reflects concerted execution rather than natural selling.
Market watchers say high-frequency stocks such as Jane Street, which has large ETF positions, may be contributing to this repeating pattern. Although unproven, the consistency of these declines is adding to traders’ frustration.
Meanwhile, miners face their own pressures. Hash prices have fallen to near record lows, prompting operators to pivot to AI infrastructure as mining profitability declines.
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Bitcoin is currently in a pivotal moment as ETFs soak up demand, macro signals drive sentiment, and miners restructure their businesses, supported by institutional capital but losing the retail momentum that once defined its cycles.
Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
