Bitcoin (BTC) is once again trading within a narrow range, with price movements subdued despite changing macro signals and renewed debate over whether the cryptocurrency’s long-observed four-year cycle still applies.
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Analysts remain divided on whether Bitcoin’s recent price action represents stability or a deeper shift in the asset’s behavior, as traders react to mixed messages from the Federal Reserve, institutional investor flows, and heightened caution across risk markets.
BTC's price trends downwards on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Analysts question whether cycle is over
A growing number of major companies are now claiming that Bitcoin may be moving beyond its historical halving-driven rhythm. Investment firm Bernstein said in a recent note that the asset is in an “extended bullish cycle” and noted that ETF outflows have been minimal despite a correction of nearly 30%.
The firm has raised its 2026 price target to $150,000, predicts a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027, and maintains its long-term 2033 estimate of $1 million.
ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood echoed this view, saying institutional adoption is reducing the likelihood of steep drawdowns of 75-90% seen in previous cycles. Grayscale also hinted at the possibility of Bitcoin breaking its four-year pattern, predicting new strength in 2026.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,000 to $93,000 depending on venue, and recent intraday fluctuations highlight a strong lack of confidence in the direction.
The Fed signals the market to be wary
The Fed’s 25bps rate cut initially boosted risk sentiment, but momentum quickly reversed with a shift to cautious, data-driven language.
Bitcoin and Ethereum fell after the announcement, with Bitcoin briefly below $90,000 as traders reassessed the macro environment. Liquidity remains thin, and movements across major crypto assets have become unstable.
Analysts say Bitcoin’s inability to sustain gains despite a weaker dollar and the Fed’s more flexible stance reflects deep-seated uncertainty. Some commentators say BTC needs to stay above $90,000 to avoid increasing bearish pressure, but if inflows improve, a break above $94,500 could reopen the path to $100,000.
Derivatives and on-chain data fuel bearish mood
Options and on-chain indicators are also showing caution. Traders have been increasing their bearish options positions, with the put/call ratio turning positive ahead of a significant expiration window. Reflecting the heightened volatility, more than $500 million in crypto liquidations occurred within 24 hours.
On-chain data shows that bullish momentum is waning. The Bitcoin Bullscore index has returned to zero, with realized losses hinting at the possibility of further decline. Analysts caution that despite past patterns of bullish buying, current readings still do not reflect the levels typically associated with market bottoms.
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The broader debate remains unresolved as Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range. Whether the four-year cycle is fading or simply taking a pause may depend on how markets digest macro uncertainties, institutional flows, and the next wave of economic data.
Cover image from ChatGPT, BTUSD chart from Tradingview
