With six days left until the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, derivatives and prediction markets are strongly betting on a rate cut, an event that has historically been favorable for Bitcoin (BTC) performance.
According to data from CME Group. Probability of 25 basis point rate cut reaches 89%. Meanwhile, only 10.8% of the market expects the Fed to maintain its current range (3.75% to 4%).
The scenario of increase was effectively ruled out by management. The figures show that expectations for monetary easing were largely in place before the announcement.
This information matches what prediction markets such as Polymarket reflect. 25 basis point reduction option concentrates 94% of the time. Bets on a more aggressive move above 50 basis points lost momentum.
This background comes as Bitcoin attempts to regain ground. The digital currency has been hovering around $93,000 after a noticeable decline in mid-November.
As CriptoNoticias previously reported, interest rate cuts typically put downward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields, a situation that has historically served as a catalyst for alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
But the fear of a bear market also lurks. This takes into account the presence of on-chain indicators in bearish territory.
