China has not booked a single shipment of US soybeans since the new export season began. It has broken a well-holding purchasing pattern since at least 1999. This is not a random slowdown. This is a repetition of the trade tactics first used under Donald Trump.
As of September 11th, almost two weeks after the season, USDA data showed zero sales cut by China, the top soybean importer on the planet. Last year alone, more than $12 billion in US soybeans went to China, accounting for more than half of the total export value of US soybeans.
The timing is not subtle. President Xi Jinping is scheduled to talk to Trump on Friday. Talks are once again intensifying over US restrictions on semiconductors and rare earth exports. Just before the call, China announced that Nvidia had violated anti-monopoly laws, adding to a mountain of unresolved tensions.
China freezes soybean purchases and stockpiles from Brazil
And that go-head hasn’t come. So importers have skipped the US and doubled it in Brazil. Crushers, feed producers and pig farms across China have purchased enough soybeans to continue the year.
Some of them doubled their stock. The government’s own strategic preparations are also piled up. 1 Purchase Manager I said He is only covered until next month, but is not in a hurry to place a new order.
The manager of a large grinding facility said an unexpected wave of US beans would cause soy milk prices to crash in local markets. They were not allowed to speak to the media, so both requested anonymity.
Usually, China relies on soybeans between October and February. It’s just before the South American harvest begins. Buyers usually trade a few weeks in advance. Millions of tons are already locked by now. But this time it’s not the case. Those familiar with the issue said importers were delaying their purchases in the first quarter of 2026.
The freeze passes through the soybeans. China is also dialing new purchases of American corn, wheat and sorghum, while continuing to buy from Brazil, Canada and Australia. Total grain imports have been declining due to economic pressures, but this broader pivot is part of a long-term plan and part of a reduction in US reliance on agriculture.
China’s eyes are oil, androids while farmers push Trump for relief
Meanwhile, American farmers are exhausting their perseverance. Despite the strong harvest, prices are low and growers, especially those who have supported Trump in the last two elections, call this a “cliff of trade and finance.” They urged the White House to remove tariffs and cut new deals that would restore China’s demand.
Andy Rothman, CEO of Sinology LLC and former US diplomat, said when Trump and Xi spoke, agriculture is expected to be high on the agenda. Trump has already asked China to quadruple its soybean order. Rothman said serious breakthroughs are likely not on the phone, but could happen later when both leaders meet in person.
There were some signs China I’m trying to cool the tension. After a six-month break, we resumed our US oil purchases. It also removes antitrust investigations on Google’s Android platform, as reported in the Financial Times. However, it has not expanded to agriculture. still.
Beijing’s soy strategy is not risk-free. Prices in Brazil have skyrocketed this year. If that harvest falls into trouble, China may have to burn its reserves earlier than planned. And if the trade contract suddenly pushes us into the mix, local sofa prices can destroy months of inventory plans and hedges.
The US remains one of the most efficient and cheapest soybean suppliers, but China said it has chosen to pay premiums to avoid that. The longer you postpone, the more expensive your choice will be. But this decision is clearly political. It’s not logistic. It’s not economical.
Even during the first trade war, even when tariffs were in place, China allowed limited imports of American agricultural products under government exemptions. So far, I have not had that kind of room this time.
“If the deal hits, there will definitely be some demand for soybeans from Chinese buyers,” he said. “The problem is the trade war, not a complete lack of demand.”
Key Difference Wire: Crypto Project, a secret tool used to get guaranteed media coverage
