After a turbulent few days, Bitcoin (BTC) has resumed its downward trend and is currently falling back toward $111,000. This represents a 12% drop from its recent high of $126,000, raising concerns among market experts that the bull market may be closer to an end than many investors think.
Will Bitcoin bull cycle end in 9 days?
On October 14, market analyst CryptoBirb claimed on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that the bullish cycle is nearing an end, saying it could end within the next nine days.
he referred to The cycle peak countdown indicator shows Bitcoin is at 99.3% in the current cycle, which lasted 1,058 days. According to CryptoBirb, this final stage is characterized by a “textbook weeding out of weak hands,” which is a common pattern observed before market peaks.
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CryptoBirb highlighted that October 24th, which is just nine days away, is a key target date and labeled the recent selloff as “on schedule.” He further explained that it has been 543 days since Bitcoin’s last halving, and the market is deep within the peak zone and beyond the historical peak window of 518 to 580 days.
Market sentiment also appears to have changed dramatically, with the Fear and Greed Index plummeting from 71 to 38, indicating a reset from fear to euphoria. of relative strength index (RSI) also dropped from 67 to 47, suggesting that this emotional washout may create the ideal launching pad for an eventual euphoric surge.
However, technical indicators are showing mixed signals. The average true range (ATR) widens to 4,040, indicating high volatility, while the RSI position of 47 suggests reset momentum.
What on-chain metrics suggest
As Bitcoin has recently proven, institutional investors are also starting to shift their strategies. Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) (ETF) flows reversed from inflows of $627 million to outflows of $4.5 million.
Ethereum ETF outflows reached $174.9 million, indicating that smart money is taking profits before retail investors potentially fear missing out (FOMO). CryptoBirb claims that this behavior is consistent with the classic distribution-to-accumulation transition.
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On-chain metrics reflect the market cooling, with net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) decreasing from 0.556 to 0.522 and market value to realized value (MVRV) decreasing from 2.45 to 2.15. These profit-taking behaviors may be creating the space needed to increase the final euphoria.
Looking at October’s performance, Bitcoin is down 2.09% since the beginning of the month, in sharp contrast to its historical average of 19.78%. This performance drop may actually be a problem. bullish signsuggesting that a big move may still be scheduled in the last few weeks of the month.
In summary, the current cycle appears to be 99.3% complete. Having already spent 25 days in the peak zone, sentiment and institutional investor distribution have reset, resulting in poor performance in October. However, if the analysts’ hypothesis proves correct, this mix could be the perfect storm for one last rally before entering another crypto winter.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
