Dogecoin exchange dynamics reversed at a critical moment, with new on-chain data indicating short-term market structure changes. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (@ali_charts) highlighted a chart on Glassnode showing that Dogecoin’s net supply on centralized exchanges just turned positive, noting that for X, “Dogecoin’s net supply on exchanges just turned positive! This change has shown a sharp recovery before.”
Dogecoin rebound reading?
in his graph post“DOGE: Exchange Net Position Change – All Exchanges” tracks monthly exchange inflows and outflows as a histogram, along with the dollar-denominated DOGE price. Green bars indicate net inflows (more DOGE moving into the exchange than outflowing from the exchange), and red bars indicate net outflows.
From mid-2024 to late 2024, the series alternates between modest red and green periods, with a persistent cluster of strong green bars emerging around the fourth quarter of 2024. At this stage, net inflows increase to billions of DOGE per month. At the same time, the price line accelerated from below $0.10 to a local peak of $0.48, showing how active the exchange side was as it moved higher.
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After that peak, the structure changes. From early to mid-2025, the histogram becomes more complex and the positive and negative readings become smaller as prices fluctuate more widely between approximately $0.12 and $0.30. However, heading into late 2025, the chart shows a series of notable red bars, with net outflows declining towards around -5 billion to -6 billion DOGE, and prices trending downward towards the mid-$0.20s to low $0.20s and below.
The last data point, highlighted by a circular highlight on the far right of the chart, shows a clear break in the pattern. The tall green bar is back above the zero line, indicating that net flows are positive again. At this point, the price line is just above the $0.15 mark on the vertical scale. Martinez interprets this as a “major rebound signal,” pointing to past instances where similar transitions from sustained outflows to strong inflows coincided with sharp directional movements.
DOGE on thin ice $0.16 or less
The second chart he shared, ATH split. UTXO realized price distribution (URPD)sets the last place the current DOGE supply moved on the chain. A single dominant bar appears around $0.07392452, accounting for 28,260,298,271.803 DOGE or 18.62% of the measured supply. Martinez sums this up by saying that 27.4 billion DOGE has accumulated around $0.08, which he calls the “most important support level.”
Between $0.07 and $0.08 blocks and around $0.16, URPD shows: Shaded “gap” Only small intermediate bars around levels like $0.096, $0.125, $0.155, etc. Above the gap, a small but notable cluster appears at around $0.162633395, which contains 4,399,496,300.739 DOGE (2.9% of supply). “If we break below $0.16, Dogecoin $DOGE support will quickly disappear,” Martinez warned, adding that “the next real demand zone is at $0.07.”
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The third chart, the Cost Base Distribution Heatmap, tracks the price of DOGE against horizontal bands representing where holders’ cost bases are concentrated. This confirms two core cohorts. The lower band from $0.0812497 to $0.08279775 containing 27,397,971,652.123432 DOGE and the upper band from $0.20103297 to $0.20486326 containing 12,156,333,652.493444. Doge.
Together with newly positive exchange flows, these data points define a market sandwiched between densely realized markets. The lower limit is approximately $0.08 And with a sizable cluster of holders around $0.20, traders tracking DOGE’s next move are currently focused on the latest flow reversal.
At the time of writing, DOGE was trading at $0.158.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
