Dogecoin (DOGE) is approaching a sensitive stage as investor demand weakens, ETF inflows stagnate, and sell-side pressure increases, concentrated around key price points.
Related books: Peter Brandt warns that XRP is at risk of double-top crash towards $0.40
Once largely driven by retail enthusiasm, meme coins are now trading close to the levels at which a significant percentage of their holders last acquired their tokens, raising questions about whether there is downside risk if confidence continues to decline.
At the same time, orphan whale accumulation and long-term cost-based data suggest that the market is approaching a zone where the next big move can be defined.
DOGE's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: DOGEUSD on Tradingview
Dogecoin ETF inflows stall due to softening sentiment
One of the most obvious changes in Dogecoin’s recent market structure is the loss of momentum for exchange-traded funds. The data is gray scale and bit by bit The DOGE ETF has not recorded any inflows since Dec. 11, with total inflows since its inception at approximately $2 million.
Total assets under management are approximately $5.2 million, a small fraction of Dogecoin’s overall market capitalization. This muted response is in stark contrast to other altcoin ETFs, particularly XRP and Solana products, which have attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in inflows.
The lack of sustained interest raises questions about the long-term viability of DOGE-focused funds, especially given the low return potential at current asset levels. More broadly, the ETF slowdown reflects a risk-averse environment, with the crypto Fear and Greed Index still in fear territory.
On-chain and derivatives data points to bearish bias
Beyond ETFs, on-chain metrics also show declining participation by large holders. Wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion DOGE have reduced their balances by more than 1 billion tokens since early December.
Similarly, DOGE supply Profits have fallen by nearly 50%, suggesting that fewer holders are hogging unrealized gains.
Derivatives markets are reinforcing this cautious outlook. Short positions currently account for more than half of the open DOGE derivatives, with over $5 million of long positions liquidated within 24 hours. Open interest is also decreasing, indicating a decline in speculative appetite rather than active market buying.
$0.10 becomes the focus, price close to major support
Technically, Dogecoin is trading around the $0.123-$0.126 range, and this area has repeatedly acted as support since April.
Prices remain below major moving averages, and momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI suggest continued downward pressure. A decisive breakout could expose the psychological $0.10 level.
Related books: If December’s closing price falls below this level, Ethereum risks falling to $2,000: Analyst
Analysts also expect historical support around $0.074, where approximately 28 billion DOGE last traded, to deepen further. A move to this level would require further deterioration in sentiment, but the current situation suggests that Dogecoin is approaching the cost-based zone, which could determine whether sellers continue to maintain control or long-term holders begin to intervene.
Cover image from ChatGPT, DOGEUSD chart from Tradingview
