Arthur Hayes believes the macro domino that sends Bitcoin to $1 million has been turned over. In a post later on X’s Monday, the Bitmex co-founder pointed to economists’ confirmation, claiming that the US Federal Reserve is preparing the market for “yield curve control” (YCC) under what is called “third mission.” Stephen Milan The same youkai are raised in the Fed’s Governor’s Committee and fresh Bloomberg report.
“As confirmed by Miran, a Fed board member, MSM is preparing the world for the Fed’s ‘third mission’, which is essentially yield curve control. I wrote it. His comments came hours later when Bloomberg “rethinks bond traders like Fed ‘Third Mandate’ Force Bond Traders rethinks old-fashioned rules.”
Milan’s arrival at the board is no longer a hypothesis. He was confirmed slightly by the US Senate and sworn in advance. Weekly Policy Meeting At the same time, a broader political battle over central bank independence is on fire.
Related readings
The heart of Hayes’ argument is that the Fed’s well-explained “double mission” is actually three parts, and emphasizing “medium long-term interest rates” could lead policymakers to direct control of the yield curve. That language is not a meme. It’s legal. Under 12USC §225A, Congress directs the Fed to promote “maximum employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates.” This is reflected on the Fed’s own website.
Meaning of Bitcoin’s surrender curve control
At X, several market voices co-signed the framing quickly. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan simply replied, “Agree.” Macro investor Lawrence Leppard responded, “Amazing! Milan is yelling about the quiet part!” Others noted that they have flagged “third missions” for several months.
Mel Mattison stressed the law in June, claiming that keeping the long end “moderate” is “part of the mission just as much as price stability and unemployment,” and like a community, “can sacrifice one.” His point highlights the operational hinge in Hayes’ paper.
What YCC actually means is contested, but conceptually clear. Unlike standard– This will set the purchase size and cause the float to surrender. The YCC targets specific Treasury yields for medium or long term Treasury and enforces the cap with unlimited purchases if necessary. The Federal Government of St. Louis describes the YCC as “imposes an interest rate cap on a specific maturity.” It has been seen in Japan since 2016 And, simply put, in Australia. Such a government aims to arrest disorderly jumps at long rates that complicate debt services and risk communication. Critics see it as a soft form of financial oppression with the risk of inflation tails.
Related readings
Hayes has tied this macro lever to the extreme Bitcoin upside down for years. In 2022 he wrote, “YCC = $1 million BTC.” This logic is simple in his narrative: While the Fed is widely dependent on long-term yields, real yields are suppressed, fiat collapse accelerates, and heavily directs marginal flows towards hard-cap assets like Bitcoin. Whether that causal chain unfolds is an open question, but the call coincides with his previous essays and public posts.
Bloomberg’s work did not declare its YCC policy imminent. Instead, they documented how traders replicate periodic risk in light of Milan’s remarks on the “medium long-term interest rates” and the political context surrounding the Fed.
Still, the statutory anchor gives a story of “third mission” rather than rhetorical weight. When the Fed held its September meeting, rate cuts were expected significantly and the composition of the committee was fluid, so control at the long end shifted from fringe threads to mainstream coverage, repeating whether the agency would ultimately be pushed from guidance.
For Bitcoin, Hayes argues that it merely admits that the path is a “trigger.” In a broader market, there is a stake in whether managing the curve becomes a choice of policy or a need for policy.
At the time of pressing, BTC was traded at $116,694.
Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com
