Recently, Bitcoin (BTC) has accumulated 12% since its last historic up to US$124,000, creating a clear restlessness in the market. However, due to the calm and quiet of investors, certain data suggest that movements are completely normal during bullish cycles.
With current Bitcoin cycles starting at the largest in March 2024, the largest drops reached 28%, and on average The most severe corrections are located between 20% and 25%. Therefore, current size does not destroy historical action.
According to crypto community analysts known as “darkfos,” these phases usually have functional impacts on upward markets. This explained it:
«This current movement is not uncommon and can continue without breaking the historical patterns. In fact, these set-offs are usually healthy in upward markets. Because they help to restore excessive leverage in derivatives, recover cool, overheated sentiment, and provide new opportunities for long-term investors to enter the country.
Darkfos, financial analyst.
The following graph shared by DarkFos shows that the most notable set-off of BTC is going well at an average of 20% of the current cycle.
Other voices match
Darkfos’ interpretation is consistent with that of Carmelo Alemán, an analyst in the Cryptoquant community. This believes that recent declines in BTC prices should be read as adjustments within the same cycle.
Despite the recoil, remember that on-chain data “continues to show signs of accumulation by long-term holders, but BTC reserves in exchange continue to decline.” He explains this suggests “medium sales pressure” in the market.
German showed that The upward cycle of Bitcoin has historically been accompanied by major revisions Before reaching the new maximum.
Among the indicators analyzed, NVT stands out. This is a metric that compares the market capitalization with the amount of network transactions. If NVT remains low, this means that Bitcoin could be undervalued in relation to actual activity. In that sense, since July 7th, the indicators have been under 50 and are historically linked to growth signals. This graph gives you a better view:
Analysts also reviewed MVRV. MVRV measures the relationship between market value and implemented value. Despite previous price increases, this index is yet to approach a critical level of 3.6. This indicates that you have not reached the stage of happiness.
This behavior of miners is also observed as a related variable. German explained that Bitcoin miners’ reserves remained stable at 1.8 million BTC, reducing just 6,000 Bitcoins from 2025. In previous cycles, miners were selling as aggressively as possible, but the idea is reinforced that there is space for new upward stretches, even if that trend isn’t the case.
In this graph, the behavior that Bitcoin Miner has had over the years:
Another reference is the ASOPR, metric, which measures the profitability of coins moved over the network. If this ratio is maintained above 1.00 over the long term, most movements generate profits and show that the sustained phase is consistent with market peaks.
Aleman emphasized that while the indicator remains positive at the 1.00 level, it has not reached a level that defines an overestimation stage. Together, these metrics show it Bitcoin crosses the fixes, but if demand is maintained, the context still has an advantage for the final rebound.
A divergent vision
In addition to these measurements, other analysts maintain positive expectations about BTC. The Digital Market Specialist Oriental Trader claims there is a foundation for optimism. Among them, it mentions increased liquidity in global markets, the expectation that the US Federal Reserve can apply interest rate reductions, and Bitcoin’s ability to provide better profits than traditional assets. According to their vision, these factors strengthen the accumulation narrative and maintain an environment in which institutional and retail investors can maintain interest.
However, not all measurements converge. GlassNode Analytics Company Considers that The Bitcoin market maintains the associated vulnerability levels. In their latest report, they stressed that “the market structure is still vulnerable and there is bearish pressure to control cash, futures and chain metrics.” They also pointed out that while the entrance to the Bitcoin ETF negotiated in the US served as a temporary mattress, the shrinkage of volume and weakening of profitability indicated a lack of convictions.
According to this analysis, there is a possibility of short-term rebounds. General sentiment remains defensive, but there is a risk of leaning towards greater integration If there is no stronger demand.
The divergence of positions reflects the current state of the market where bullish continuity signals with warnings about structural vulnerability remain together. Advocates of accumulation theory support the argument that chain metrics and macroeconomic foundations have supported the argument that BTC has not yet reached the roof in this cycle. On the other hand, the most cautious highlights signs of reduced purchase impulses and weaker activity indicators.
It is clear that Bitcoin is beyond the fixes maintained within bull cycle parameters, according to historical registration and network metrics. Therefore, the evolution of demand indicators, miner activities, and flows to equipment such as ETFs are important parts that will help us determine whether BTC behavior is a prelude to new advancements or an initiation of a long-term phase of integration.
