The answer to the question titled in this memo is: for a cryptographic analyst who identifies as “darkfos”: Bitcoin (BTC) has a high probability of widespread bear correction periods.
He identified a decline in Bitcoin supply rate to a 90% level.
Analysts say the long-term average is around 75%, but bullish cycles usually show more than 90% of coins for profit. When that level is lost, the onset of the adjustment phase is frequently observed. And in bear markets, the soil is profiting at least 50% of the currency.
This bearish signal matches other technical measurements. According to GlassNode, the impulse weakened in the market last week. The relative Strength Index (RSI) fell 21.4% to 43.6 points, approaching the overall condition. This reflects the limited convictions of buyers, in addition to the lack of dynamism, although the volume remains stable.
The bear signal is enhanced with another on-chain metric. According to encrypted data analyzed by Cryptanchain, the 30-day mobile average of BTC purchase and sales ratios has fallen to its lowest point since May 2018.
This indicator was less than 0.98 and was interpreted as a liquidation signal. Because sales pressure exceeds purchases. In fact, in November 2021, the metric was at a higher level, at a historic price of up to $69,000.
The views discovered
However, not all analyses and indicators are bassists. Analysts have identified Cryptoquant’s “CrazzyBlock” and claim that the fall experienced is a classic shake. New holders with less than a month’s coins have recorded an unrealized loss of 3.5% and have settled their position, resulting in a significant reduction in the supply of this cohort.
In contrast, those who have BTC between 1 and 6 months maintain an average profit of 4.5% and are not selling. This reinforces the idea that pressure is concentrated on newcomers. For the analyst, This dynamic transfers Bitcoin to your hands with greater convictions and reduced base costs.
In line with this vision, Cryptanchain observes a decrease in Bitcoin entries into exchanges. The 30-day mobile average of these flows has fallen to its lowest level since May 2023. This means low disposal of investors’ sales, as reviewed by crypto. According to the company, this cut in supply available in the market could potentially maintain rebound in the medium term.
The Bitcoin market is beyond its turning point. A 90% threshold loss of gain currency poses the risk of corrections backed by impulses and weakened volume. However, on the other hand, a decline in supply on the exchange could still resume the recovery path of assets if they could retain key support levels.
