The US stock market is undergoing a steady phase. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are trading near their all-time highs (ATH) on expectations for a 2026 rate cut and corporate performance that supports risk appetite.
However, this performance has not been replicated in the market’s main digital asset, Bitcoin (BTC), which has shown to be relatively weak against Bitcoin. stock.
According to the chart below from TradingView, Bitcoin is down nearly 3.5% so far this year. this, Meanwhile, the Nasdaq rose about 19.8% and the S&P 500 rose more than 16%.thus achieving a new record in price.
This divergence reflects the loss of traction of digital assets relative to stock indexes, which continue to trend upward over the medium term.
The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and stock indexes has decreased
Decoupling is also evident in on-chain data. According to analysis by the CryptoQuant community analyst known as “Darkfost.” The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and major stock indexes is at its lowest level in years.
This can be seen in the following graph.
The expert said the correlation remains high due to increased participation from institutional investors, the launch of physical Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and the growth of companies incorporating Bitcoin on their balance sheets. In fact, a graph comparing the price of Bitcoin to the price of the index shows a strong positive correlation since at least January 2025.
This correlation broke down around early November, and since then the divergence between asset price trends and the index has become even more pronounced.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still near record levels; Bitcoin enters correction phase And after dropping about 36% from its peak, it’s holding steady.
For Dirkforst, this divergence “could indicate that Bitcoin will continue to function as a separate asset class.” This includes risk dynamics and macroeconomic factors that do not necessarily align with stock market factors.
This move comes in what some market analysts describe as a “true pain zone” for Bitcoin. As reported by CriptoNoticias, the latter is characterized by a prolonged flattening, residual selling pressure and mixed expectations among investors.
Therefore, while some in the market expect Bitcoin to “catch up”; stockDarkhost analysis warns: That scenario is not a guaranteed fact.
Looking ahead to the coming months, Bitcoin’s performance may continue to be driven by unique factors. These include supply and demand dynamics, derivatives activity, and market reactions to global macroeconomic events. This, at least for now, Digital assets do not move at the same pace as Wall Street.
