The probability of Bitcoin (BTC) falling below $100,000 before the start of 2026 is surged on crypto forecasting platform Polymet, reflecting bearish sentiment a week after a turbulent turbulence in digital assets.
Markets that raise the issue“Is Bitcoin below $100,000 a year ago?”Spikes have skyrocketed from 47% on September 25th to 60% at the time of publication.
Earlier this week, when Bitcoin was traded above $117,000, the same contract was eroding just as fast as price momentum faded.
BTC price analysis
Bitcoin is currently trading at $108,950, over 2% per day and over 6% per week. The Red Week on the Move reflects the broader debilitation of the entire crypto market, which has suffered a loss of nearly $150 billion in the past 24 hours amid a wave of liquidation and risk-off flow.
Multi-tiered data shows that the total bet volume for the contract on December 31, 2025 rose to $1.39 million, suggesting a surge of interest in speculation about possible hedging or deeper corrections.
The forecast market is not a definitive forecast, but it provides useful measures of investor psychology. The rising odds indicate that as macro pressure builds up and liquidity increases concern that Bitcoin may struggle to hold support levels.
Still, with three months remaining in 2025, the market remains split, and the sharp reversal of emotions was a hallmark of “Uptotber” Bitcoin cycles.
