Despite many crypto analysts claiming that Bitcoin’s next big breakout is likely to occur in 2026, Polymarket traders give Bitcoin a 21% chance of rising to $150,000 this year.
“What price will Bitcoin reach by 2027, according to the current market?” Polymarket show There is a 45% chance that Bitcoin will reach $120,000. Notably, this price range is below its all-time high. The probability decreases rapidly at higher price levels, with a probability of $130,000 dropping to 35%, $140,000 to 28%, and a price of $150,000 to just 21%.
report There is an 80% chance that BTC will reach a peak of $100,000, indicating that traders are making a safe bet.. It is unclear why this move would make users so cautious, the sources claimed. Some believed that it was decided to adopt this approach in connection with the end of the war. 4 year cyclefollowing Bitcoin’s massive losses in 2025.
Uncertainty over Bitcoin’s fate sparks controversy
Regarding the 4-year cycle, it is worth noting that this cycle followed the trend around the halving event in BTC’s history. It also helped traders predict future movements and played an important role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Although this cycle is now becoming less important, analysts suggest that: new trading patterns It may be surfacing.
Interestingly, despite the pessimism in the crypto market, experts still suggest that 2026 will be a strong year for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has announced his intention to announce a new chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming weeks. This news brought hope to the crypto industry, as many expected interest rates to fall.
Immediately after these assumptions, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver rose significantly, with both reaching new peaks in the last quarter of 2025. Digital assets, on the other hand, remained unchanged.
Analysts are now expressing the possibility that significant crypto legislation will be enacted. genius act and the CLARITY Act, which provides simple regulation and potentially facilitates significant institutional adoption.
Several analysts, including Standard Chartered, Strategy, and Bernstein, predict that BTC price could reach an all-time high of $150,000 by 2026. Analysts who adopted a more positive outlook on the matter, such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, also suggested that the cryptocurrency could rise by as much as $200,000 to $250,000.
Traders point out some of the limitations to BTC growth
Bitcoin prices caused tension in the cryptocurrency industry after plummeting in November. Analysts claim that several factors prevented the cryptocurrency’s price from sustaining above $110,000. These factors were institutional investment and corporate acquisitions.
They offered various reasons to support this claim. Chief among these reasons is the growing interest in Bitcoin options, especially Bitcoin options. blackrock ishares Spot Bitcoin (IBIT) Exchange Traded Fund.
Meanwhile, it was confirmed that the total open interest in Bitcoin options rose from the record of $39 billion set in December 2024 to a new level in December 2025. Analysts explained that this rise has led to increased awareness of covered call strategies in the ecosystem.
Critics, on the other hand, expressed the view that by lending out their expected returns for a fee, major investors may have inadvertently set limits that would prevent Bitcoin from reaching its next significant growth stage. To understand this point better, the analyst pointed out that it is useful to think of covered calls as a choice between capturing a higher price or earning regular income.
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