Traders and analysts in the cryptocurrency market suggest that Solana (the Sun) can soon experience a significant fall that is the prelude to the upward trend.
According to analysts identified as “alchemist traders” in the Training View community, SOL is in the “critical decision zone.” This is because it is located near the control point (POC), which is considered the highest volume level in recent range. This point serves as an important technical barrier and, if not strongly exceeded, can lead to additional setbacks.
The resistance facing SOL at this point is important. This consists of two important elements: The maximum area of the value area. This is a retreat of 0.618 Fibonacci, where many operations have been performed previously and usually serve as a roof.
These two levels Historically, areas where prices tend to fallwhich can cause a temporary fall. This low is part of a rare figure called the “harmonic pattern,” where prices go down in the final stretch and then rise with more force.
The technical patterns identified by analysts could fall to $95. This set-off, although bearish in the short term, generally does not negate upward movements, says the alchemist trader. On the contrary, it can be seen as a necessary step within a larger term bullish composition, the specialist said.
The culmination of this pattern, if confirmed, will serve as a starting point for impulses. You can increase the price to more than 200 areasThe author of the TrainingView community says:
This graph clearly shows the analyst’s projection of solar prices in the short term.
These types of harmonic patterns are rare, but when finished correctly, they are powerful, experts recall. In this case, signs of “respectable structure” They mean there may be strong rebounds after the correctiontherefore, it creates a major trend change.
Meanwhile, the market must be expected as Sol continues to operate within the range separated by the historical level of the high temporary frame, analysts say. For him, ruptures with volumes above the maximum value range will disable harmonic patterns And it points out the possibility of immediate continuation of the rise.
Solana is on the forefront
In parallel with this technical analysis, SOLs are closely observed for regulatory reasons. The U.S. Stock Exchange and the Securities Commission (SEC) have already considered eight applications to launch ETFs based on its cryptocurrency. These devices allow traditional investors to get exposed to the price of their assets from traditional stock market platforms without having to directly protect Solana.
Currently, ETF emitters are responding to comments from the S-1 form. The process may end by July 31st, but the official deadline is October 10th. The regulator’s intention is to open the door to the first ETF with cash from digital assets that are not Bitcoin (BTC) or ether (ETH).
In this context, approval expectations are reflected in platforms such as Polymarket. Users of this cryptocurrency-based betting house will assign a 91% chance to approve the Sun’s ETF in 2025, and 68% before Julio finishes.
With the imminent approval of SOL’s ETF, the cryptocurrency is now waiting for a “summer” that leads to the price of its assets of USD 154. This is according to the latest analysis of the Vettafi research company collected by Cryptootics.
Advances in regulated financial products also include the recent launch of the ETF “Rex Osprey Sol Staking” (SSK). In addition to being exposed directly to the price of the sun, you get staking yields.
In the first few hours of business, SSK won $20 million. Placed between the top 1% of the most successful releaseaccording to Bloomberg Intelligence data. The early performance of this ETF suggests high institutional benefits and represents a milestone in products that incorporate passive income into regulated markets.
Inflation behavior
However, the expansion of solar supply in 2025 has created a complex environment. Over the course of six months, the amount of coins in circulation has increased from 480 million to over 530 million. This expansion of over 15% Puts inflationary pressure on priceshinders the integration of bullish movements.
The following graph shows the increase in solar radiation over the past six months.
It must be taken into account that Sun’s citations fell by 40%, as it was a historic up to $260 in November 2024. This can be explained in part by this supply pressuredespite certain rebounds, sustained growth has been limited by demand that does not absorb new supply.
This context is relevant to assess the technical composition as it requires measuring bullish potential in the face of the macroeconomic and structural foundations of assets.
In that sense, technical analysis of alchemist traders suggests a path to $200; Markets need to absorb both new emissions and expectations around ETFs We will examine this trajectory.
Solana is located at both technical and structural intersections. Harmonic patterns suggest a revision following strong rebounds, but the regulatory environment, inflationary pressures and institutional market movements are evident. These will be key factors in defining your courses in the second half of 2025.
