Bitcoin (BTC)’s resilience will be tested in a scenario where investor confidence is the main retaining wall against declines.
While the market is experiencing a phase of indifference and prices are subject to difficult fluctuations, the analysis of data is On-chain It has become clear that the strategic holder’s sector is defending its entry level. This dynamic suggests that, beyond day-to-day volatility, there are “unsung heroes” who can prevent further declines in digital assets.
According to analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, the price level of Bitcoin is directly influenced by investor beliefs.
“Bitcoin is trading at the price of belief,” says the expert, noting the fact that its relative strength above $80,000 is no coincidence. Rather, it responds on a basic psychological and technical level.
In the case of Moreno de Vicente, the key metric in this scenario is the true market average price (TMMP). This indicator represents the average acquisition price within the network of investors, excluding miners. In other words, The exact point at which real capital entered the market.
“Over time, this level has served as a sandy psychological line. Investors are generally relieved when BTC trades above it. Setbacks usually find buyers, and dips are seen as opportunities,” Moreno explains.
This support is currently at $81,500, as shown in the following chart.
As long as digital assets remain above this threshold, investors are “absorbing supply and protecting their cost base.” Conversely, if the price falls below this level, Moreno warns he could become a resistance forceThis is because those who bought near that average will take advantage of the pullback and abandon their positions.
Measuring Bitcoin sentiment and profitability
The analysis incorporates a second behavioral layer with AVIV ratios. This indicator focuses only on investor returns and compares actual market valuations with realized valuations.
According to Moreno, the current level of AVIV is These have similarities to past mid-cycle transitions. The graph below reflects that better.
The market did not collapse during this period; However, it also shows no aggressive tendencies. Instead, prices move sideways and volatility is compressed.
“This is where the weakness of faith is exposed,” experts say. AVIV remaining stable between 0.8 and 0.9 indicates that the trend is surviving thanks to the silent rebalancing of investors.
Therefore, the current scenario raises fundamental questions about Bitcoin’s behavior in the short term. That is, are investors willing to maintain their position at their average price?
Moreno de Vicente believes that if Bitcoin supports TMMP, Despite perceived weaknesses, market structure remains healthy. However, if the price falls below $81,500 and AVIV continues to compress, it means sentiment is weakening, which typically precedes an exploration of demand at lower levels. For now, the price of Bitcoin is essentially the price of its holders’ beliefs.
We will have to wait in the coming hours and days to see if this belief holds. As reported by CriptoNoticias, a stress test will be held tomorrow, December 19th, when the Central Bank of Japan is likely to announce an interest rate hike, which could have a negative impact on global financial markets.
