Bitcoin soared in early European trading on Monday, November 10, 2025, briefly regaining a handle of $106,000 after a volatile weekend. The move comes amid a series of macro liquidity signals and policy headlines reversing risk appetite.
Why is the price of Bitcoin rising today?
Traders point to three interlocking factors behind the scenes: a sudden change in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet guidance, and an increased likelihood that the Washington government shutdown turmoil will be quickly resolved with subsequent policy. Treasury General Account (TGA) Drawdownand new policy topics from 50-year mortgages to potential relief checks are reigniting the “urge for liquidity” debate.
The most concrete development is the central focus of the Fed’s communication around reserves and balance sheets. New York Fed President John Williams suggested last week that the central bank may need to resume asset purchases soon as foreign exchange reserves have declined from “abundant” to just “abundant.” This is not to stimulate the economy, but to keep financial markets functioning smoothly as the Fed ends quantitative tightening on December 1st and begins fully reinvesting maturing Treasuries.
Related books
“The Fed may soon need to expand its balance sheet to meet liquidity needs,” Williams said, stressing that any purchases would be technical rather than a new quantitative easing program. QT stops The authorities are preparing to expand the balance sheet if necessary to stabilize reserves.
Paradoxically, another tailwind is Washington politics. Prediction markets are currently handicaping significant odds that the record-length U.S. government shutdown will end in mid-November. Polymarket shows an 87% chance of a resolution passing between November 12th and 15th.
Why is that important for Bitcoin? Because when a government shutdown ends, Treasury spending typically increases and, all else being equal, cash flows from the Fed’s TGA into the banking system, increasing bank reserves. The mechanical alignment of TGA going down and reserves increasing is well documented. The increase in reserves, especially as the Fed no longer drains liquidity through QT, is the kind of macro backdrop that has historically coincided with an intensification of crypto bidding.
Related books
In this context, new policy topics are stirring the “liquidity imagination.” Over the weekend, president trump And FHFA leadership has floated the idea of allowing 50-year mortgages, a change that, if implemented through government-backed companies, would significantly alter the length of housing finance in the U.S., offering lower monthly payments in exchange for higher lifetime interest rates.
In X, the story of fluidity is distilled into loud, punchy memes and historical analogies. Capriole Investments Founder Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) summarized Bullish case for the day: “Week closing prices are bullish. 90% chance of US shutdown ending this week (polymarket). Fed cuts interest rates by 1% in 18 months. Fed confirms plans to expand balance sheet! Greedy with stock fear and extreme fear! Put/call ratio is bullish. Backs Bitcoin.”
James Lavish (@jameslavish) pushed Fiscal Angle: “President Trump is issuing $2,000 Stimmy checks, FHFA is considering 50-year mortgages, and the U.S. government continues to run a $2 trillion deficit. Tell me again how the days of easy liquidity and asset inflation are coming to an end.”
Yann Alleman and Yann Happel, co-founders of blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode (@Negentropic_), tied it to the TGA, saying, “A government shutdown agreement is on the horizon. This could give the Treasury the green light to begin draining funds from the TGA. This is a key element for the final upswing to unfold.”
Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) added callbacks for retail flows. “Welcome back, Helicopter Money…If you had invested your $1,200 stimulus check in Bitcoin, it would now be worth $18,607. Don’t mess with this.”
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $106,265.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart on TradingView.com
