Was the arrival of Bitcoin (BTC) at $124,500 the maximum for this upward cycle? That’s a valid question in the market.
For Juan Rodríguez, the driver of the YouTube channel «Bitcoin and Cryptos», its peak does not necessarily represent a cycle roof. In his opinion, Bitcoin still has space for a new impulse that will allow him to overcome that level before a longer fix.
“For me, this is a great possibility that we can go higher, not the roof,” says Rodriguez, explaining that Bitcoin’s previous cycles represent the biggest historic pattern.
The dynamics were the same in 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021. The exponential function peaked at record prices. And he gives way to an important fall that lasted around 12 months. But before these setbacks were integrated, the market recorded its final rebounds.
Therefore, according to Rodriguez’s paper, it is too early to conclude this cycle’s upward movement.
September is the decisive month
Rodriguez’s attention focuses on September, which has historically served as a turning point for Bitcoin. In 2013, when the currency first reached $1,000, September was announced as a month’s revision before the final promotion took place in October and November.
The same happened in 2017 when prices fell in September and rose to up to $20,000 in December. In 2021, the story was repeated. September replaced the maximum time of $69,000 in November.
According to Rodriguez, “September served as a hinge month,” suggesting that the current revision is merely and does not imply a bear market arrival.
To enhance that idea, compare historical data showing a 67% drop in four weeks after a maximum of $1,163 in 2013. The backlash in 2017 was between $20,000 and $11,160, with a loss of 43% over the same period. And in 2021, Bitcoin went from 69,000 to $41,968, with a 39% revision.
Faced with these examples, Rodriguez emphasizes that the recoil of $124,500-$107,270, which was the lowest he reached last week, accounts for just 14%.
“The numbers tell us that we don’t see these major revisions after we don’t see any historical maximums at this point,” he emphasizes. Additionally, it emphasizes that the price has been maintained above $100,000 for more than 120 days, which is interpreted as a solid integration. If certain falls related to political decisions are excluded, The daily closure exceeds that number is 162 days.
Macroeconomic context also affects
According to financial analyst Javier Espasa Peribañez The macroeconomic context also supports the expectation of a new maximum for Bitcoin. Experts commented on the cryptocurrency that the imminent reductions in interest rates in the US and the application of the genius law in that country that allows for the issuance of stubcoins will improve the liquidity available.
«The level of fluidity that will soon be occurring is historically the highest. Of course, the market will be cruelly Arquista and Bitcoin. Of course, it reflects that,” Espasa says. Espasa believes the current market cycle is “different from previous market cycles because the flow of money reaching the market is realistic. We are not talking about forecasts, but this financial institution and fund manager have gained real status».
In my opinion, we intend to have the most explosive market in history. It will probably go shorter over time (I think it will last 5/6 months), but it’s even more intense in terms of Bitcoin prices and cryptocurrency. October marks its beginning and can stay until March/April 2026.
Javier Espasa Peribañez, Financial Analyst.
It is estimated that the Federal Reserve announced its decision on interest rates on September 17th. Entity president Jerome Powell appeared on August 22 that it could cut from its current level of 4.5% per year. In fact, the cryptocurrency market is forecasting a maximum of two cuts for the type before it ends this year.
For Juan Rodríguez, these monetary policy measures, along with other macroeconomic factors, including Donald Trump’s mutual tariff decision, known at the end of September. They will mark courses in digital currency in the coming months.
This adds the behavior of the stock market to which Bitcoin is linked. Rodriguez says that while the S&P 500 remains upwards, “BTC is very likely to reach a new ATH in 2025.”
Fatigue signal
Even if there is a positive signal, not all analysts share an upward vision. Promoting and communicator Ivan Pratt believes Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness. “At this point, we believe we are reaching the end of the market that is just as upward as ever. We are beginning to see very clear signs of weakness,” he said.
Pratt faces resistance with prices close to $112,000, and that If the impulse continues, areas between USD 130,000 and USD 140,000 are related. However, he warns that some of his capital is moving to cryptocurrency. This is the usual phenomenon when Bitcoin loses relative power.
As he explains, the market is beyond the second stage of the cycle. “People get profits from Bitcoin and put it in cryptocurrency.” In his opinion, the movement shows that the market is close to a turning point.
In this regard, the analyst position presents two complementary measures. For Rodriguez and Espaza, the historic and macroeconomic foundations support the new historic maximum this year. However, in the case of Platt, Market strength begins to show cracks that can predict the end of the Bitcoin Alcysta CycleArrivals in the Alto Season, etc.
The truth is that September is presented as an important month. The Fed’s decision on the evolution of interest rates and commercial policy in the United States marks an immediate course. Historical precedent reinforces the idea that this month’s revision could precede the final impulse. However, the current set fold size is much lower than the previous cycle size. It feeds a debate on whether the roof has already reached or whether there is still room for another move.
