Caleb Franzen, founder of Cubic Analytics, says XRP is in a critical phase after months of compression. The price structure implies a path to the $6-11 zone, as long as the market defends what he calls the key risk line at $2.68.
XRP price target
Over a wide range Discussion On his Thinking Crypto podcast with host Tony Edward, Franzen emphasized that his conclusions are based on “price, structure, statistical signals” rather than on narratives. “It’s the chart itself, the structure itself,” he said. “As long as it’s over $2.68, it’s way higher.”
Franzen’s XRP view comes from the same template he applies to digital assets: identifying the integrity of the trend, mapping the impulse integrated rhythm, and converting it to a fibonacci extension target ladder on a logarithmic scale. In the case of XRP, he claims that the market follows a higher high and then “tightened” to the “tightened” lower-ranked best series.
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He then fixes an objective target to that structure. Using the latest integrated legs, it brings the 161.8% expansion closer to around $4.40 and the 261.8% extension at around $6. From the larger Q1 swing, from the Q1 high to the first quarter low, he adds a second target band at around $5.40 and $11.55. In his words, “These are price targets that you should be aware of if you’re holding and investing in XRP. As long as it’s above $2.68.”
Risk management is central to how Franzen frames transactions. Rather than the biggest prediction, he sets a clear level of invalidation and treats it as a mechanical decision point. “If you go below $2.68 you can stop, you can reduce some of the exposure, you can slow the DCA,” he said. “It’s okay to be wrong. It’s not okay to be wrong.”
Macro Angle
The podcast also covered Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana, but Franzen’s macro and cross-asset framework aims to contextualize the XRP setup rather than overshadow it. He repeatedly described himself as a “time agnostic,” refusing to pinpoint results for a given month or quarter, claiming that tapes, not calendars, determine the probability. “I’ve been sharing (cycle) targets since mid-2023,” he pointed out, adding that the wise path is to keep targets up within the uptrend, while negation takes care of the rest.
That stance is informed by his characterization as a resilient and supportive macro condition. This is enough for risk assets to trend without demanding weak US dollars as crutches. He noted that it improves strong actual activity data and revenue assumptions as evidence that risk appetite is not enforced. It is developing naturally.
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Among the specific markers he flagged: real GDP growth in the third quarter was 3.8%, about 3.9% in Q3. Prime Age unemployment by about 3.8% near historic lows. Workforce participation is increasing. And there is an increase in actual and nominal wages, with wages of about 4.1% year-on-year.
In the credits, he highlighted that tight spreads and sophisticated companies have printed multi-year highs. “And if you adjust the dividend yield, they’re trading at the highest ever” – a combination that doesn’t happen when the market is plagued by impending stress. “When you look at the weight of the evidence here, it all comes together,” he said. “High and higher lows, increased risk appeal, decent macro conditions, The Fed is cutting interest rates…We have to continue to have an upward bias. ”
He argues that macro lenses are important for XRP. Because it reinforces the superiority of structure over the narrative. He criticized and emphasized the general assumption that crypto rallies must match a dollar decline. US Dollar Index (DXY) It was almost flat since mid-April, while Bitcoin and even the broader crypto beta were expanded significantly.
He also described the combined lens that price Bitcoin against a basket of global currencies (which effectively offset BTC/USD by DXY), and said that the index is also not necessarily just a low dollar, reflecting “weak global Fiat currency.” What does XRP mean: Wide fluidity And the background of the risk continues to reward the sustainability of the trend, and then there is a clean runway in the technical coils and extension ladders.
At the time of press, the XRP traded for $2.8593.
Featured images created with dall.e, charts on tradingview.com
