Before answering the questions raised in the title, it is important to point out that the cryptocurrency market is bleeding as a result of US President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
As reported by Cryptonotics, the president applied mutual tariffs to dozens of countries. Among them are China, Canada, Latin America and the European Union.
The measure, announced on April 2nd on “Liberation Day,” caused economic turbulence around the world. The effect is seen in the cryptocurrency market.
Current scenarios are less advantageous for digital assets. This is because most investors still consider risky assets and choose to take shelter in financial instruments that are not subject to market fluctuations, such as treasured debt.
Under this general market, one of the most affected digital assets is Solana (Sun). The level that has not been touched since February 2024 is below $110.
At the time of publication of this memo, Sun’s quote was $110, 60% below the historic maximum (ATH) of $293, reached January 18, 2025.
This huge price drop will open up questions less than three months later. Is Sol exploded or an underrated bubble?
One of the latest nodes Analytica Research Reports, data analytics company On-chain, Describe whether both the valuation and subsequent price collapse are due to speculative or problematic issues of the ecosystem.
To do this, the company’s experts suggest that they contact Solana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to establish how much value, movement, or spend within its ecosystem. It is important to clarify that in the traditional sense it is not GDP, The ratiophor used to describe the economic activity within the network.
This metric is taken from two components of the protocol: GDP (GDP protocol) and Application GDP (Application GDP).
The GDP of the Solana protocol consists of a rate that maintains network operation. Basic Committee, priorities, votes. In addition to the publication of Nuevos Sol as a Reaking Reward and Jito tips.
Jito’s tip should be explained as voluntary payments that encourage balloters to handle transactions more efficiently and avoid attacks. These are linked to MEV (Maximum Removable Values) as validators, via tools such as JITO Labs, help optimize transaction ordering to maximize profits, improve processing efficiency, and manage congestion within the network.
Application GDP measures the economic activity of all platforms and services running in Solana, while payment applications between Defi (Raydium, Meteora, etc.), NFTS wallets, games, or markets are calculated to estimate the values generated by such activities.
This is calculated based on the amount of transactions, fee revenue, and the adoption these applications achieve. For specialists, These two indicators provide greater accuracy to assess the economic health of the ecosystemexceeding the market sun price.
Solana GDP Enlarge Glass
To prepare the report, experts used quarterly data compiled by platforms such as Token Terminal and Defillama. This showed a strong correlation between economic growth in the Solana ecosystem and the evolution of the price of native cryptocurrency Sol.
This link is reflected in a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.76, indicating a significant relationship between increased activity within the network and subsequent asset valuation.
As observed in the following graph, Solana’s GDP reveals a clear duality between values generated directly by the protocol and those generated by the application that operates it.
The protocol’s GDP breakdown includes solar emissions as its main source of revenue, with over $340 million being generated as wagers. This component exceeds other revenues such as Basics, Priorities, Voting, and JITO, with the latter reaching over $17 million. This pattern is at least during this period Economic incentives to verify and ensure that a network far exceeds economic activity derived from the use of the network itself..
For that part, the GDP generated by the application built into Solana reaches $91 million, led by the Defi sector. This represents almost half of the total. They reflect the high demand for direct transfers without intermediary, offering more than $31 million, with close wallet transactions.
Despite its growth, there is still a small amount of participation in sectors such as gaming and NFT. Together, these data show that the protocol remains the largest value generator through the stand, but activity activities begin to consolidate. As a related economic engine within the Solana ecosystem.
In the second quarter of 2024, the Solana protocol’s GDP reached $2,590 million due to an increase in the amount of blocked sun. Next, the application’s GDP has doubled in the Defi sector, ranging from $33 to $78 million, along with projects such as MemeCoins creation platforms such as Raydium, Meteora and Pumpfun.com.
In the third quarter of this year, both GDP metrics fell sharply, with slowing down in solar prices, and almost never rose 5%.
This withdrawal coincided with reduced currency emissions and reduced application use. This indicates that as economic activity drops on the network, demand for assets tends to decrease. The relationship seems to be constant: Lower activity is comparable to lower solar purchasing pressure.
Finally, in the fourth quarter of 2024, both the protocol’s GDP and application’s GDP doubled or quadrupled, especially with committee growth and JITO tips.
As a result, the Sun price averaged 50%, reaching a revaluation of up to 80% in just three months. This pattern suggests that As solar demand increases within the ecosystemthe market will respond with a significant price increase.
What happened in the first quarter of 2025?
As Cryptootics reports, on January 18, 2025, his presidential assumption, the price of the sun skyrocketed after the launch of Donald Trump’s official memo coin (Trump).
Almost a month later, Cryptocurrency prices collapsed after the pound scandala token promoted by Argentine President Javier Mairei. It was presented as a tool to promote the growth of the technological enterprises in the country, but a few hours after their market debut, many warned that their usefulness was virtually zero and that they catalogued it as Memocoin.
Many view it as a scam because there have been a few price anomalies recorded during the sale.
The negative impact of that episode is still ongoing, with the project continuing to fight to separate it from its “Casino de Memocoin” nickname.
The node report does not mention these two events that mark the rising and falling prices of the solar, but analysts have shown:
“Most metrics have decreased, but SOL emissions have increased, suggesting behavioral changes. As committee and app activity rises, validators prefer to move capital instead of blocking it, reducing broadcasting. This reduces cyclical patterns.
Node Analytica Research Report.
The dynamics explained by node analysts are reflected in events that took place in early 2025.
These episodes are not mentioned directly in the report, but fit into observations regarding solar emissions. Increases in emissions during periods of volatile, such as those produced by Trump, appear to anticipate falls after the fiasco Libra, demonstrating periodic behavior in the market.
According to forecasts, two possible scenarios have been drawn by 2025.
In the upward context, if sector revenue doubled to $150 million in the second quarter and the issuance remains stable, Sun prices can range from $350-400.
In a bearish scenario, we expect bearish pressures that could potentially multiply a price on an area of $120-150 if revenue from applications falls below quarter 50 million and issuances increase significantly.
In conclusion, and to answer the question, experts will determine whether the price of the sun is bubbles or undervalued. It is recommended to observe the GDP metrics of your network. “They need to use this frame to strategically counter speculative noise based on clear database signals,” completes.
